摘要
为了减小有限空间的作业风险,降低事故发生率,本研究构建了有限空间作业的事故树—贝叶斯网络事故致因模型(FTA-BN模型),用事故树分析法全面梳理出“人—机—环—管”4个维度的风险因素,结合作业事故数据采用专家打分和模糊数处理定量得出基本事件的发生概率,再通过贝叶斯网络计算出所有事件的后验概率。结果表明:盲目施救、中毒窒息、燃烧爆炸等是有限空间作业事故发生的主要风险因素,针对分析结果提出了更有针对性的对策措施,验证了该模型的可行性和适用性。
In order to reduce the operation risk and decrease the accident rate,in this paper,a fault tree-Bayesian network accident causation model for confined space operations was constructed.The fault tree analysis method was used to comprehensively sort out risk factors from four dimensions of man,machine,environment and environment.The occurrence probability of basic events was quantitatively obtained by using the expert scoring and the fuzzy number processing combined with the operational accident data,and then the posterior probability of all events was calculated by Bayesian network.The results show that blind rescue,poisoning and asphyxia,and combustion and explosion are mainly risk factors that lead to the operation accident in the confined space.The corresponding countermeasures are put forward.
作者
王乾
袁嘉淙
柴文浩
WANG Qian;YUAN Jiazong;CHAI Wenhao(School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering,China University of Mining and Technology-Beijing,Beijing 100083,China)
出处
《安全》
2023年第7期23-29,共7页
Safety & Security
基金
国家自然科学基金资助(52074302)。
