黄河流域上游城市群三生空间时空演化特征及其变化稳定性分析

Characteristics of Spatio-temporal Evolution and the Change Stability Analysis of Production-Living-Ecological Space of Urban Agglomeration in the Upper Reaches of the Yellow River Basin

识别三生空间迁移演化规律并掌握其引发的空间性状改变情况,对优化国土空间布局、提高利用水平影响深远。以黄河流域上游城市群为研究对象,基于转移矩阵对研究区2000—2020年三生空间时空演化规律进行分析,并以此为基础,利用强度分析模型,从三生空间一、二级分类双重视角,就空间演化带来的变化稳定性问题进行讨论。结果表明:(1)20年间,研究区三生空间转移变化活跃但发生数量和规模均呈缩减态势,空间转移以呼包鄂榆和宁夏沿黄城市群两地为主,呈东多西少分布特征,但以生态为主、生产和生活空间为辅的整体格局未发生改变。(2)20年间,流域三生空间变化先强后弱,整体不稳定。生产和生活空间稳定活跃增加,减少趋于平缓,生态空间增加趋于平缓,但减少趋向活跃,前二者对生态空间的胁迫趋向常态。同时,流域三生空间内部彼此转移频繁,存在生产—生活及生活—生态2种稳定地系统性转变模式。(3)三生空间二级子类此消彼长的改变是生产、生活、生态空间变化的显性原因,而经济发展驱动、城市引力影响以及宏观政策指引则是引发流域三生空间演替变化的内在作用机制。(4)转移矩阵与强度分析模型的联合研究框架,有助于实现区域三生空间变化及其性状改变情况的一体化监测。提高空间利用效率,控制城市规模,坚持耕地保护,推行有效的空间退出机制,发挥宏观政策对空间流转的导引作用,将对研究区国土空间高质量利用产生积极影响。

Identifying the migration and evolution of Production-Living-Ecological space(PLE space)and understanding the changes of spatial characteristics triggered by it have a profound influence on optimizing the layout of national land space and improving utilization level.Taking the urban agglomeration in the upper reaches of the Yellow River basin as the research object,based on the transfer matrix,the spatio-temporal evolution rule of the PLE space in the study area from 2000 to 2020 was analyzed.On this basis,by means of the strength analysis model,the change stability brought by the spatial evolution was discussed and quantified,from the dual perspective of the primary and secondary classification of the PLE space,respectively.The results revealed that:(1)The spatial change of PLE space in the study area was active during the past 20 years,but with a decreasing tendency in the amount and the scale,which was also concentrated upon the Hubao Eryu urban agglomeration and the Ningxia urban agglomeration along the Yellow city cluster,with the distribution high in the east and low in the west.Nevertheless,the overall pattern was still dominated by the ecological space and the production and living space were followed.(2)During the past 20 years,the spatial change trend of PLE space in the basin was first strong and then weak,which was unstable as a whole.The increase of production and living space was active and stable,while the decrease tended to be gentle.The increase of ecological space tended to be gentle,but the decrease tended to be active,and the stress of the first two groups on the ecological space tended to be normal.At the same time,PLE space in the basin was frequently transferred to each other,and there were two stable systematic transformation modes of production-life,life-ecological.(3)The transformation of PLE space within the secondary classification level was the dominant reason for the change of production,living and ecological space,while the development of economic drive,the influence of urban attraction,as well as the guidance of macro policies were the internal mechanisms that caused the alternant change of PLE space in the basin.(4)The joint research framework of transfer matrix and the intensity analysis model would realize the integrated monitoring of change monitoring and the changes of the characteristics of the regional PLE space.The improvement of space utilization efficiency,regulation of urban scale,persistence of cultivated land protection,fulfillment of effective space exit mechanism,and giving play to the guiding role of macro policies on space transform will have positive impacts on the high-quality utilization of PLE space of the study area.