人口流动促进居民消费的微观机理与效应——基于外地生活经历的经验证据

Micro Mechanism and Effect of Population Mobility Promoting Residents Consumption:Empirical Evidence Based on Intercity Life Experiences

在国家积极推进劳动力和人才社会性流动体制机制改革的背景下,基于2017年和2019年CHFS面板数据,使用双向固定效应模型进行实证检验,从外地生活经历的角度研究了人口流动对家庭消费的影响及机制。研究发现:人口流动会显著促进家庭消费。机制检验表明,人口流动会通过提升家庭数字经济参与程度、家庭社会资本、家庭创业的可能性进而促进家庭消费。异质性分析发现,数字经济基础设施完善程度较高会显著放大人口流动对家庭总消费的正向影响;人口流动对户主工作单位类型为机关团体、事业单位或国有及国有控股企业的样本家庭的总消费产生的促进作用更大;人口流动对家庭总消费的正向影响在户主还未返乡的样本家庭中更大,并且这种促进作用仅在没有流动性约束的家庭中显著。

Under the background of the country s active promotion of the reform of the social mobility system and mechanism of labor and talent,this paper uses a two-way fixed effect model to conduct an empirical study on the impact and mechanism of population mobility on household consumption from the perspective of intercity life experiences based on CHFS panel data of 2017 and 2019.The study finds that population mobility significantly promotes household consumption.The mechanism tests show that population mobility can significantly promote household consumption by improving household participation in the digital economy,household social capital,and the possibility of entrepreneurship.Heterogeneity analysis finds that a higher degree of infrastructure construction in the digital economy significantly magnifies the positive impact of population mobility on total household consumption.Population mobility has greater impacts on the household consumption of the householders who work in government organizations,public institutions,or state-owned and state-owned holding enterprises.The positive impact of population mobility on total household consumption is greater in the households whose householders have not returned to their hometown,and this promotional effect is only significant in households without liquidity constraints.