中国粮食主产区农业水贫困与粮食生产脆弱性的时空耦合研究

Spatio-temporal coupling of agricultural water poverty and grain production vulnerability in the main grainproducing areas in China

为厘清粮食主产区农业水资源与粮食生产的协调适配关系,促进二者协同发展进而增强我国粮食生产韧性,本研究构建了农业水贫困和粮食生产脆弱性评价指标体系,借助主客观赋权法、耦合协调度模型、全局莫兰指数和基尼系数,分析了2006—2019年粮食主产区农业水贫困、粮食生产脆弱性及二者耦合协调关系的时空演变特征。结果表明:2006—2019年农业水贫困程度降低了30.45%,南方降幅高于北方,整体呈现北高南低的态势;粮食生产脆弱性降低了71.99%,北方降幅高于南方,整体呈现南高北低的态势;农业水贫困与粮食生产脆弱性的耦合协调度上升了21.99%,区域差异趋于缩小,但始终保持北高南低的态势。据此,本研究提出了降低农业水贫困和粮食生产脆弱性、提升两个系统耦合协调发展的路径。

To clarify the coordination and adaptation relationship between agricultural water resources and grain production in the main grain-producing areas in China and to promote the coordinated development of the two and thus enhance the resilience of grain production,we constructed an evaluation index system of agricultural water poverty and food production vulnerability in this study.We used subjective and objective weighting methods,coupling coordination degree model,global Moran′s index,and Gini coefficient to analyze the characteristics of the spatio-temporal evolution of agricultural water poverty and food production vulnerability and their coupling and coordination relationship in the main food-producing areas.The results showed that:from 2006 to 2019 the agricultural water poverty decreased by 30.45%,with larger decrease rate in the south than those in the north,showing a trend of high water poverty in the north and low in the south.The vulnerability of grain production decreased by 71.99%,with larger decreases rate in the north than those in the south,showing a trend of high vulnerability in the south and low vulnerability in the north.The coupling coordination degree between agricultural water poverty and food production vulnerability increased by 21.99%,and the regional difference tended to narrow,maintaining the trend of high and low coupling coordination in the north and south,respectively.Based on this,we proposed a way to reduce agricultural water poverty and food production vulnerability and to enhance the coupling and coordinated development of the two systems.