电力行业可再生能源补贴与全国碳市场协同减排效应

Synergistic emission reduction effects of China’s national carbon market and renewable energy subsidies in the power industry

随着全国统一碳市场的启动,其与可再生能源补贴政策在促进电力行业碳减排上的协同效应值得关注。传统观点认为碳交易政策下碳排放总量被固定,总量控制下的可再生能源补贴政策将不再发挥额外减排作用,甚至会引致碳市场配额过量,扭曲碳市场价格。为此,该研究面向全国碳市场建立一般均衡分析框架,考察电力行业可再生能源补贴与全国碳市场并行的减排效果及其政策协同路径。研究发现:①针对电力行业的全国碳市场与可再生能源补贴政策均会带来全行业二氧化碳减排,总量控制力度越大或补贴力度越大,减排效果越明显。②仅覆盖电力行业的碳市场会产生“碳泄漏”效应,导致非电力行业碳排放量上升,在此基础上继续可再生能源补贴政策或会借助行业间生产要素转移缓解“碳泄漏”,抑或会通过绿化电力生产结构催生碳市场配额过量。③二者叠合时,补贴资金来源为居民一次性税收(居民收入税)时的减排效果要优于资金来源为可再生能源电价附加税(电力消费税)时的减排效果,且要警惕后者“越界损害”。④可再生能源补贴政策会导致碳交易价格下降,采用固定上网电价补贴要优于浮动上网溢价补贴,需梯次提升总量约束力度可有效抑制碳交易价格下跌。随着碳市场的扩容和完善,可逐步降低甚至取消可再生能源补贴,以规避其对碳市场价格的影响。

With the launch of a unified national carbon market in China,its synergistic effects on promoting carbon emission reduction in the power industry with renewable energy subsidies are noteworthy.The traditional view is that the total amount of carbon emissions is fixed under the carbon trading policy and the renewable energy subsidy policy under the total amount control will no longer play an additional role in reducing emissions,and would even lead to excessive carbon market quotas,distorting carbon market prices.This pa⁃per establishes a general equilibrium analysis framework for national carbon trading and examines the parallel emission reduction ef⁃fects of renewable energy subsidies in the power industry and the national carbon market and their policy synergy paths.The results show that:①The national carbon market and renewable energy subsidy policy for the power industry would both bring about CO2 emis⁃sion reduction in the whole industry.②The carbon market that only covers the power industry would produce a‘carbon leakage’ef⁃fect,which would lead to an increase in carbon emissions in non-power industries.On this basis,continuing the renewable energy subsi⁃dies may alleviate the‘carbon leakage’by means of the transfer of production factors among industries or lead to excessive carbon mar⁃ket quotas by‘greening’the power production structure.③Considering two sources of renewable energy subsidies:the one-time tax on residents(resident income tax)and the renewable energy electricity price surcharge(electricity consumption tax),the emission reduc⁃tion effect of the former resource is better than that of the latter resource,and the latter may even cause‘cross-border damage.’④The renewable energy subsidies would lead to a decrease in the carbon market transaction price.The FIT is better than the FIP,and it is necessary to increase the total amount of constraints to effectively restrain the decline of carbon trade prices.As the carbon market ex⁃pands and improves,renewable energy subsidies can be gradually reduced or even eliminated to avoid their impact on the carbon mar⁃ket price.