旅游环境承载力的影响因素与提升路径研究——基于中国三大城市群的模糊集定性比较分析

Study on the influencing factors and improving paths of tourism environmental carrying capacity——a fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis based on three major urban agglomerations in China

旅游环境承载力是区域旅游业可持续发展的重要表征,其提升是一个复杂的因果交互过程。选取中国三大城市群为研究单元,在对三大城市群旅游环境承载力水平进行测度的基础上,采用模糊集定性比较分析方法探讨游客密度、经济发展水平、科技进步水平、环境规制强度、旅游产业集聚和旅游生态效率对城市群旅游环境承载力的组态效应与提升路径。结果表明:单一条件变量均不能构成城市群高旅游环境承载力的必要条件,承载力提升受多个因素的交互影响与联合作用。其中,京津冀城市群共有游客与产业布局调控型、多种因素综合作用型、资源要素整合优化型、旅游产业集聚促进型4条提升路径,长三角城市群共有区域经济发展驱动型、经济与生态效率协同型、旅游生态效率提升型、科技与环保资金扶持型4条提升路径,珠三角城市群则有游客密度与科技推进型1条提升路径。各城市群应因地制宜选择符合自身实际的旅游环境承载力组合提升路径。

Tourism environmental carrying capacity is an important representation of the sustainable development of regional tourism industry,and its improvement is a complex causal interaction process.This paper selects three major urban agglomerations in China as the research unit,and measures their levels of tourism environmental carrying capacity.The fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis method is used to explore the confi guration eff ect and improvement path of tourist density,economic development level,scientific and technological progress level,environmental regulation intensity,tourism industry agglomeration and tourism ecological effi ciency on tourism environmental carrying capacity of urban agglomerations.The results show that a single conditional variable cannot constitute the necessary condition of high tourism environmental carrying capacity in urban agglomerations,and the improvement of carrying capacity is aff ected by the confi guration of multiple factors.Among them,the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration has four promotion paths:tourist and industrial layout regulation,multiple factors comprehensive eff ect,resource factors integration and optimization,and tourism industry agglomeration promotion.The Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration can be summarized into four promotion paths:driven by regional economic development,coordinated by economy and ecological efficiency,promoted by tourism ecological efficiency,and supported by science and technology and environmental protection funds.The Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration has an improvement path of tourist density and science and technology promotion.Each urban agglomeration should choose its own tourism environmental carrying capacity improvement path according to local conditions.