国际政治复合系统论:一种分析方法

The Complex System Theory of International Politics:An Analytical Method

系统是人类思考问题的基本方法。在国际政治中,学界对国际政治系统进行了较为深入的研究,比如新现实主义理论就蕴含了系统的思考。不过单纯的系统决定论有一定的局限,确切地说,国际政治由多个复合系统所构成,行为体的多元、战略构成多线性、实践要素多重构成以及不同动力的相互作用都充分说明了这一点。正是基于国际政治系统的复合属性,各个行为体形成了不同的对外战略路径依赖,行为体对路径依赖的调适空间与时间也由国际政治复合系统决定。准确认识国际政治复合系统的意义显而易见,不仅可以准确把握行为体与其他行为体的关系,也可以为提出较为准确的对外政策决策提供一定的借鉴意义,尤其是在把握国家关系的战略调适方面。同时,国际政治复合系统的变迁历史也充分说明生产力的先进性始终是国际政治博弈中的一般性要素。

System is the basic method of human thinking.In international politics,scholars have conducted a more in-depth study of the international political system,such as neo-realism theory contains systematic thinking.However,simple systemic determinism has some limitations.To be exact,international politics is made up of multiple complex systems,which are fully illustrated by the diversity of actors,the multilinear composition of strategies,the multiple composition of practical elements and the interaction of different forces.It is based on the compound attribute of the international political system that various actors form different foreign strategic path dependence,and the adjustment space and time of the actors' path dependence are also determined by the international political complex system.The significance of an accurate understanding of the international political complex system is obvious,which can not only accurately grasp the relationship between actors and other actors,but also provide some reference for more accurate foreign policy decision-making,especially in grasping the strategic adjustment of state relations.At the same time,the changing history of the international political complex system fully shows that the advanced nature of productive forces is always a general element in the international political game.