尼泊尔2022年大选与未来政治稳定性分析

An Analysis of the 2022 General Election and Future Political Stability in Nepal

2022年11月20日尼泊尔举行新宪法颁布以来的第二次联邦议会选举,此次选举是在尼泊尔国内政党博弈加剧,新冠疫情叠加俄乌冲突导致的经济下行,以及尼印、尼美关系升温的背景下举行的。选举基本延续了2017年后尼“三足鼎立”的政党格局,尼共(毛主义中心)继续保持“关键第三党”地位。但也出现一些新的变化,如尼泊尔左翼政党席位整体受到削弱,民族独立党、民意党等新兴政党悄然崛起,以民族民主党为代表的保守势力有所回潮,马德西传统族群政党实力走弱,政党政治碎片化进一步加剧。导致此种结果的原因是多样的:原尼泊尔共产党内部奥利派与普拉昌达—内帕尔派矛盾激化导致的政党分裂使左翼政党实力与形象双双受损;大会党、尼共(联合马列)等传统大党老人政治问题突出,青年知识分子政治参与意识强烈;两大选举联盟因策略失误、意识形态差异、政党内部候选人之争、联盟形式松散而未达到预期目标;马德西传统族群政党频繁分裂且受到新兴政党和传统大党的双重挤压等。此次选举后,尼泊尔未来政治稳定性依然堪忧,仍存在总理辞职、议会倒阁致使政权更迭的可能。联合政府内部激烈的权力与职位利益之争、政策与意识形态之争,国家治理能力与民众期望的脱节,印度对尼泊尔的干预以及中美博弈背景下美国迫使尼选边站队的压力是影响尼政治稳定的重要因素。

On November 20,2022,Nepal held the second federal parliamentary election since the promulgation of the new constitution.The election results showed that the election basically continued the “tripartite confrontation” political party pattern after 2017.The Communist Party of Nepal(Maoist Center) continued to maintain its status as a “key third party”,but at the same time there were some new changes,such as the overall weakening of seats of the left-wing political parties in Nepal,the emergence of emerging political parties such as the Rastriya Swatantra Party and the Janamat Party,and the resurgence of conservative forces represented by the Rastriya Prajatantra Party,the strength of traditional ethnic parties in Madhesi has weakened,and the fragmentation of party politics has further intensified.The reasons for these results are various:the party split caused by the intensified conflict between the Oli faction and the Prachanda-Nepal faction within the former Communist Party of Nepal damaged both the strength and image of the left party.The traditional major parties such as the Congress Party and the Communist Party of Nepal(Unified Marxist-Leninist) have prominent problems of the gerontocracy,and young intellectuals have a strong sense of political participation.After this election,Nepal's future political stability remains worrisome,and there is still the possibility that the resignation of the Prime Minister and the fall of parliament will lead to regime change.