基于复杂网络模型的灾害损失空间波及效应研究--以湖北省洪涝灾害情景为例

Spatial Ripple Effect of Disaster Loss Based on Complex Network Model--Taking the Flood Disaster Scenario in Hubei Province for Example

随着区域经济一体化不断深入,某个地区或部门遭受灾害冲击很容易通过产业关联对灾区外造成波及影响。研究灾害损失空间波及效应对于综合灾害风险管理很有必要。该文基于2012年中国区域间投入产出数据,构建地区间产业关联复杂网络,并以湖北省洪涝灾害情景为实例,利用复杂网络模型的相关分析方法,探究灾害损失空间波及效应。研究结果发现:湖北省严重洪涝灾害情景下,除农业、化学产业等对下游产业造成严重波及影响外,整体上湖北省洪涝灾害对上游产业的波及强度为对下游产业的1.6倍左右;对比一、二阶波及效应,化学产业等对上游产业的二阶波及显著增强;分区域看,山西、陕西、江苏等省区受湖北省洪涝灾害波及影响较为严重;从全局产业网络看,湖北省洪涝灾害造成整体网络流通效率下降1.2%,引发系统性风险。

With the deepening of regional economic integration,a certain area or sector shocked by disasters would easily cause serious ripple effects on external regions through industrial correlation.It is necessary to capture the spatial ripple effect of disaster loss for integrated disaster risk management.Based on China’s inter-regional input-output data in 2012,this paper constructs an inter-regional industrial network,and takes the flood disaster scenario in Hubei Province as an example,using the correlation analysis method of the complex network model to explore the spatial ripple effect of disaster losses.The research results show that:in the case of serious flood disaster scenario in Hubei Province,except for agriculture and chemical industry,which caused serious ripple effects on downstream industries,the overall ripple intensity of flood disaster in Hubei Province on upstream industries is about 1.6 times of that on downstream industries.Comparing the first-order and second-order ripple effects,the second-order ripple on upstream industries such as chemical industry has increased significantly.From a regional point of view,Shanxi,Shaanxi,Jiangsu were more severely affected by the flood disaster in Hubei Province.From the perspective of the overall industrial network,the flood disaster in Hubei Province will cause systemic risks,which caused the overall network circulation efficiency to drop by 1.2%.This study can provide a reference for the government and local industries to better manage disaster risk.