基于DSSM的汶川地震灾区经济韧性演化特征研究

Study on the Evolution Characteristics of Economic Resilience of the Affected Area of Wenchuan Earthquake Based on DSSM

以往的经济韧性测度研究中偏重韧性测度水平的变化,经济韧性的结构对于经济韧性的影响往往受到忽视。动态偏离份额分析模型(DSSM)提供了分析经济韧性变化与动力机制演变的崭新视角,通过将其运用于经济韧性分析可以将受灾地区局部区域与整体区域变化相联系,准确分析研究期内受灾地区经济韧性的结构优势与竞争力强弱变化。该文以2008年汶川地震为研究对象,测度受灾地区51个区县2003—2017年间经济韧性水平,使用相似系数将灾后经济韧性变化划分为三个阶段,使用动态偏离份额分析模型(DSSM)对比分析汶川地震前后经济韧性的结构分量与竞争力分量变化情况,深入探究汶川地震影响受灾地区经济韧性的动力机制。

Previous studies on the measurement of economic resilience mainly focused on its level,and the impact from the structure is often ignored.Dynamic Shift-Share Analysis Model(DSSM)provides a new perspective to analyze the change of economic resilience and the evolution of its dynamic mechanism.The application of DSSM to economic resilience can connect the local and overall regional changes of the affected areas,accurately analyze the structural advantages and competitiveness changes of the affected areas’economic resilience during the research period.Taking the affected area of Wenchuan earthquake as the study area,this paper measures the economic resilience of 51 counties in the affected areas during 2003-2017,divides the post-disaster economic resilience changes into three stages based on the similarity coefficient.This paper analyzes the industry mix effect and the local share effect of economic resilience before and after the Wenchuan earthquake through DSSM,and deeply explores the dynamic mechanism of the Wenchuan earthquake affecting the economic resilience of the affected areas.