农业技术创新的经济效益分析——基于空间溢出效应的视角

Has Agricultural TechnologyInnovation Promoted Agricultural Economic Growth——A Perspective Based on Spatial Spillover Effects

农业技术创新的跨区域溢出特征需要用空间计量模型识别。文章基于中国内地237个城市的面板数据,通过构建交通时间矩阵、交通距离矩阵及经济地理距离矩阵,建立空间Durbin模型,实证研究农业技术创新对农业经济增长的直接效应、间接效应和总效应,并进一步探究农业技术创新对该地区农业经济增长的滞后效应。研究发现:(1)考虑空间溢出效应后,农业技术创新对农业经济增长具有显著的直接影响和空间溢出效应。传统计量经济学模型对于农业技术创新对农业经济增长的影响集中于直接效应的分析,低估农业技术创新对农业经济增长的总体效应。(2)进一步引入农业技术创新的滞后项后,随着时间的推移,农业技术创新对农业经济增长的积极作用才会显现,这与广泛技术创新对经济增长影响存在滞后效应的结论相一致。

The cross-regional spillover characteristics of agricultural technology innovation need to be identified by a spatial econometric model.Based on the panel data of 237 cities in China's Mainland,this paper establishes a spatial Durbin model by constructing a traffic time matrix,a traffic distance matrix and an economic geographic distance matrix to empirically investigate the direct,indirect and total effects of agricultural technology innovation on agricultural economic growth and further explore the lagged effects of agricultural technology innovation on agricultural economic growth in the region.It is found that(1)after considering spatial spillover effects,agricultural technology innovation has significant direct and spatial spillover effects on agricultural economic growth.The traditional econometric model for the impact of agricultural technology innovation on agricultural economic growth focuses on the analysis of the direct effect and underestimates the overall effect of agricultural technology innovation on agricultural economic growth.(2)After further introduction of the lag term of agricultural technology innovation,the positive effect of agricultural technology innovation on agricultural economic growth only becomes apparent with the passage of time,which is consistent with the conclusion that there is a lag effect of the impact of extensive technological innovation on economic growth.