中国省域新型城镇化与农业碳排放效率的耦合协调关系

Coupling Coordination Between New-type Urbanization and Agricultural Carbon Emission Efficiency in China’s Provinces

在厘清30个省份新型城镇化水平与农业碳排放效率的基础上,利用耦合协调模型、空间自相关模型和空间马尔科夫链等方法探究二者的耦合协调水平并分析其时空分异与趋势演变特征。结果表明:(1)2020年新型城镇化水平以北京居首广西最末,相比2005年所有省份都得到了不同程度提升且以贵州增幅最大;2020年农业碳排放效率以天津居首山西最末,相比2005年除上海外的余下29个省份效率值都得到了不同程度提升且以青海增幅最大。(2)2020年新型城镇化与农业碳排放效率耦合协调度以北京最高新疆最末;相比2005年,除上海外的29个省份耦合协调度都有显著提升,且其中27个省份实现了层级跨越。总体看,截至2020年,绝大多数省份的耦合协调等级达到了中级及以上水平。(3)在整个考察期内,中国省域新型城镇化与农业碳排放效率的耦合协调度表现出了明显的空间集聚特征,即高值省份通常与一个或多个高值省份相邻,而低值省份周边一般伴有一个或多个低值省份。同时,当前全国仍以低‐低集聚为主,中西部省份的耦合协调度明显处于落后态势。(4)各省份新型城镇化与农业碳排放效率的耦合协调度在短时期内较难实现层级跨越;而在引入空间地理因素后,耦合协调等级的稳定性已有动摇趋势,且极易导致“强者恒强,弱者恒弱”的马太效应出现。

Based on clarifying the new-type urbanization level and agricultural carbon emissions efficiency of 30 provinces in China,this paper explores their coupling coordination level and analyzes its spatio-temporal differentiation and trend evolution characteristics by using coordinated development degree model,spatial autocorrelation model and spatial Markov chain.The results show that in 2020,the level of new-type urbanization ranked highest in Beijing and lowest in Guangxi,and all provinces have achieved varying degrees of improvement compared to 2005,with the largest increase in Guizhou.In terms of agricultural carbon emission efficiency in 2020,Tianjin ranked highest and Shanxi ranked lowest.Except for Shanghai,the efficiency values of the other 29 provinces have improved to varying degrees,with the largest increase in Qinghai.The coupling coordination degree between new-type urbanization and agricultural carbon emission efficiency in 2020 was the highest in Beijing and the lowest in Xinjiang;Compared with 2005,the coupling coordination degree has significantly improved in 29 provinces except for Shanghai,and 27 of them had achieved hierarchical leap.Overall,by 2020,the coupling coordination level of the majority of provinces has reached an intermediate or higher lever.Throughout the study period,the coupling coordination degree of China’s provinces exhibited obvious spatial clustering characteristics,with high values usually being adjacent to one or more high-value provinces and low values adjacent to one or more high-value provinces.Meanwhile,the overall patern in China is still dominated by low-low agglomeration at present,and the coupling coordination degree of central and western provinces is significantly lagging behind.It is difficult for the coupling coordination degree between newtype urbanization and agricultural carbon emission efficiency of each province to achieve hierarchical leaps in the short term.However,after introducing spatial geographical factors,the stability of the coupling coordination degree has shown a trend of instability and is prone to the occurrence of the Matthew effect where the strong become stronger and the weak become weaker.