高坝蓄水提前下闸条件下的施工后期导流风险分析

Risk Analysis of Diversion in the Late Construction Period under Condition of Early Discharge of High Dam Water Storage

针对水电工程后期施工风险和收益管理因素过多引发的决策困难,通过对高坝施工后期导流风险和提前蓄水发电收益的影响因素进行分析,构建后期导流风险及收益管理模型,采用西南某水电工程2021年7月蓄水和发电数据进行分析对比。结果表明,该水库在7月份施工建设中最高导流风险为0.579%,最低导流风险为0.206%。研究成果可为管理决策提供有效支撑分析,表明该方法在高坝蓄水提前下闸条件下的施工后期导流风险的有效价值。

In view of the decision-making difficulties caused by too many risk and benefit management factors in the later stage of hydropower project construction,this study analyzes the influencing factors of diversion risk and power generation benefit in the later stage of high dam construction,and constructs the later diversion risk and benefit management model.In the experiment,the data of water storage and power generation of a hydropower project in southwest China in July 2021 were analyzed and compared.Through calculation,the highest diversion risk and the lowest diversion risk of the reservoir in July were 0.579%and 0.206%,respectively.The model constructed in this study can provide effective support analysis for management decisionmaking,so it proves the effective value of this method in the diversion risk in the later stage of construction under the condition of early sluice of high dam storage.