“两难”困境下决策气象服务的策略探析

Study on strategies of meteorological decision-making servicein a paradoxical dilemma

在实际业务中,由于决策气象服务的前后一致性与天气预报的不确定性之间存在博弈关系,决策气象服务经常陷入是否应追随预报调整的“两难”困境。从成熟的社科类研究成果中寻找相关理论进行探析,寻找“两难”困境下的服务思路:(1)认知盲点理论指出,决策气象服务应该更关注服务策略,即从考虑服务效果出发选择是否追随预报调整,在高级别防御情况下若要调低预警级别必须慎重。(2)自然决策理论指出,决策气象服务应以策略匹配为核心,遵循“提早计划—情境适应—更新匹配方案”的措施思路,有助于实现气象防灾减灾效益最大化。具体而言,可通过需求调查和复盘总结等来获取决策所需的关键信息,结合以上信息开展标准化建设,制定决策气象服务所需的不同匹配计划,形成“决策经验库”;同时充分考虑气象防灾减灾的需求和期望,动态调整决策服务方案来适应需求变化。

In practical business,due to the game relationship between the consistency of decision-making meteorological services and the uncertainty of weather forecasting,decision-making meteorological services often fall into the dilemma of whether to follow the adjustment of forecasts.Afforded by mature research in social sciences,this study finds two theories to support the service strategies in the above dilemma:①Epistemic blindspots theory points out that decision-making on meteorological services should pay more attention to service strategies,that is,choose whether to follow the forecast adjustment from the perspective of service effectiveness,and be cautious when lowering the warning level in high-level defense situations.②The theory of naturalistic decision-making points out that decision-making meteorological services should be centered around strategy matching,following the approach of"early planning,scenario adaptation,and update matching scheme",which helps to maximize the benefits of meteorological disaster prevention and reduction.Specifically,key information required for decision-making can be obtained through demand surveys and replaying summaries.Based on the above information,standardization construction can be carried out to develop different matching plans for decision-making meteorological services,forming a"decision-making experience base";At the same time,fully consider the needs and expectations of meteorological disaster prevention and reduction,and dynamically adjust the decision-making service plan to adapt to changes in demand.