基于MaxEnt模型预测日本松干蚧在贵州省的潜在分布

Potential Distribution of Matsucoccus matsumurae in Guizhou Based on MaxEnt Model

日本松干蚧(Matsucoccus matsumurae)是我国危险性林业有害生物之一,其种群严重危害松林安全。为探究日本松干蚧分布和扩散规律,通过实地调查日本松干蚧分布和虫口密度,并基于最大熵(MaxEnt)模型预测了日本松干蚧在贵州的潜在分布。结果显示,模型预测结果较好地反映日本松干蚧在贵州省的分布情况,日本松干蚧主要分布在遵义市中南部区域,其中汇川区、新蒲新区、绥阳县是日本松干蚧的高分布区,红花岗区为中分布区,播州区、桐梓县、正安县为低分布区;年温度变化范围和年均降水量是影响日本松干蚧分布的重要环境变量;虫口密度调查统计显示,日本松干蚧在遵义市的平均虫口密度为25头/10 cm^(2);日本松干蚧将继续扩大分布范围,具有向四周辐射扩散的趋势,未来可能在遵义形成全面分布格局,须加强对分布区日本松干蚧的防治。

Matsucoccus matsumurae was one of the national dangerous forestry pests,seriously endangering the safety of pine forests.To explore the distribution and diffusion patterns of Matsucoccus matsumuraes,the distribution and population density of Matsucoccus matsumurae were investigated on site,and the potential distribution of Matsucoccus matsumurae in Guizhou was predicted based on the Maximum Entropy(MaxEnt)model.The results showed that the model well reflected the distribution of Matsucoccus matsumurae in Guizhou,which were mainly distributed in the south-central area of Zunyi,Huichuan,Xinpu,and Suiyang had become the high distribution areas with serious damages,Honghuagang was the medium distribution areas,and Bozhou,Tongzi and Zheng′an were lowly-distributed areas;the influence of temperature annual range and annual precipitation were most critical;the insect density statistics showed that the average insect density was 25 heads/10 cm^(2)in Zunyi;Matsucoccus matsumurae would continue to expand and spread around to form a comprehensive distribution pattern in Zunyi in the future.So prevention and control of Matsucoccus matsumurae in distribution areas should be strengthened.