“中心—外围”视角下东北地区市域经济韧性及影响因素分析

Characteristics and influencing factors of economic resilience in Northeast China from the perspective of“central-cities and outer-suburbs”

随着中国经济进入“新常态”,东北地区再陷发展困境,区域经济韧性面临严峻挑战。针对中国市辖县体制的地域型城市,通过比较“中心—外围”的经济韧性关系,更有助于认知东北地区的经济发展问题。本文以东北地区市域中心市区和外围县市作为研究对象,分析2007—2019年东北地区市域中心市区和外围县市的经济韧性水平、类型的时空演变特征,采用地理探测器探究中心市区和外围县市经济韧性的影响因素。结果发现:①东北地区中心市区和外围县市经济韧性水平均变差,且外围县市变化更大。市域经济韧性类型变多且变得更差。②东北地区中心市区和外围县市经济韧性的主要影响因素具有相似性,产业结构、政府管控对经济韧性具有重要影响,劳动力市场和金融环境的影响程度偏弱。③部分影响因素在中心市区和外围县市的作用方向不同,产业结构多样化水平和固定资产投资占GDP比重有助于提升中心市区经济韧性,但对外围县市经济韧性表现为负向作用。

The new normal status of China′s economy had revealed that the Northeast China was facing challenges due to its weak regional economic resilience.Within the context of China′s municipal-administered county system for regional cities,comparing the economic resilience relationship between the central-cities and outer-suburbs would be a helpful approach for understanding economic development issues in Northeast China.This study examined the spatio-temporal evolution of economic resilience levels and types in the central-cities and outer-suburbs of Northeast China′s prefecture-level cities from 2007 to 2019,and employed the geographical detector to investigate the influencing factors of economic resilience for both regions.The results showed that:①The economic resilience levels of both the central-cities and outer-suburbs in Northeast China had decreased over time,with greater changes observed in the outer-suburbs.The types of economic resilience of the prefecture-level cities had increased and become worse.②There were similarities in the main influencing factors of economic resilience between the central-cities and outer-suburbs in Northeast China.Industry structure and government regulation had significant impacts on economic resilience,while the influence of labor market and financial environment was relatively weak.③Some influencing factors had different effects on the central-cities and outer-suburbs.The level of industrial structure diversity and the proportion of fixed asset investment in GDP contributed positively to the economic resilience of central-cities,but exhibited negative effects on the economic resilience of outer-suburbs.