中国农业高质量发展水平的测度、空间演化及影响因素研究——基于PROMETHEE法的分析

Study on the measurement,spatial evolution and influencing factors of high-quality agricultural development in China——Analysis based on the PROMETHEE method

实现农业现代化,进而解决“三农”问题,关键在于走农业高质量发展道路。借助基于熵值法的PROMETHEE法对中国30个省份2011—2020年的农业高质量发展水平进行测度,运用标准差椭圆分析法对空间演化特征进行可视化分析,并借助面板Tobit模型对影响因素进行实证分析。结果发现:①考察期内,中国农业高质量发展水平阶段性增长,呈现“东部断层领先、中部加速追赶、西部持续跟进”的格局,区域间具有收敛态势,但差距仍然较大;②中国农业高质量发展集聚轴由东南—西北转向西南—东北,发展核心区由东部沿海地区逐渐向西南扩张,东部省份形成高高聚集区,西南方向省份发展迅速,中国农业高质量发展进入“沿海—内陆双轮驱动”的新发展阶段;③5个影响因素在全国层面对农业高质量发展正向促进作用均显著为正,其中产业结构优化水平在中部显著为正,而在东部为负,能源消耗水平、城镇化水平、社会消费水平分别对东、中、西部影响显著且最强,科技水平对东、中、西部影响较弱且西部略高。基于上述结论,本文从“培育多级增长极+完善区域协调发展机制”与“共性路径+个性策略”两个视角提出了促进中国农业高质量发展的对策建议。

The key to achieving agricultural modernization and solving the three agricultural problems was to take the path of high-quality agricultural development.This paper used PROMETHEE method to measure the level of high-quality agricultural development in 30 provinces of China from 2011 to 2020,and then used standard deviation ellipse analysis and Tobit model to explore spatial evolution characteristics and influencing factors.The results showed that:①The level of high-quality agricultural development in China exhibited a pattern of“the eastern part of the country was leading,the middle part of the country was catching up,and the western part of the country was continuing to follow”,with a trend of phased growth.There was a convergence trend between regions,but there were still large gaps.②The agglomeration axis shifted from“southwest-northeast”to“southeast-northwest”.The core area of development had gradually expanded from the eastern coastal region to the southwest,with the eastern provinces and cities forming a high agglomeration area and the southwestern provinces and cities developing rapidly,and China′s high-quality agricultural development had entered a new development stage of“coastal-inland double-wheel drive”.③All five influencing factors had a significant positive effect on the development of agricultural quality at the national level,among which industrial structure optimization level was significantly positive in the central part and negative in the east,energy consumption level,urbanization level and social consumption level had significant and strongest effects on the east,central and west respectively,and science and technology level had a weaker effect and is slightly higher in the west.Based on the above findings,this paper proposed countermeasures to promote the high-quality development of China′s agriculture from the perspectives of“cultivating multi-level growth poles+improving regional coordinated development mechanism”and“common path+individual strategy”.