长三角城市群雾霾污染对入境旅游流的影响效应

Influence of Haze Pollution on Inbound Tourism Flow in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration

探究雾霾污染对入境旅游流的影响是稳定入境旅游市场、导控入境旅游流空间的重要议题。该文借助双变量空间自相关、标准差椭圆等方法分析2002—2018年长三角城市群雾霾污染与入境旅游流的空间演化特征,利用空间计量模型剖析雾霾污染对入境旅游流的影响效应。结果表明:(1)长三角城市群雾霾污染与入境旅游流的空间分布呈现明显的异质性和非均衡性,二者在空间形态上的演化具有显著的“东南—西北”反向耦合特征;(2)长三角城市群雾霾污染与入境旅游流整体表现为空间负相关关系,研究期内二者负向空间依赖和集聚效应不断增强,从局部空间看,主要以“高—低”“低—高”“高—高”3种空间集聚形态为主,“高—低”集聚区主要分布于安徽省西南部、江苏省东北部,舟山表现为稳定的“低—高”集聚特征,“高—高”集聚城市主要为苏州、嘉兴和南通;(3)雾霾污染对本地区入境旅游流具有显著的负向影响,并通过空间关联对邻近地区产生负向空间溢出效应,产业结构、对外开放程度、交通便利程度等对邻近地区入境旅游流具有空间溢出影响。最后,提出强化区域防霾治霾的联动作用、统筹协调各旅游要素等相关建议,以稳定入境旅游市场、提高国际旅游竞争力,实现入境旅游高质量发展。

Exploring the influence of haze pollution on the inbound tourism flow is an important topic to stabilize the inbound tourism market and control the inbound tourism flow space.This paper describes the spatial evolution characteristics of haze pollution and inbound tourism flow in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration from 2002 to 2018 by bivariate spatial autocorrelation model and standard deviation ellipse,and analyzes the effect of haze pollution on inbound tourism flow by spatial econometric model.The results show that:①The spatial distribution of haze pollution and inbound tourism flow in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration shows obvious heterogeneity and imbalance,and the spatial evolution of the two has significant"southeast-northwest"reverse coupling characteristics.②From the perspective of global space,haze pollution and inbound tourism flow in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration show negative correlation in the study period,with negative spatial dependence and aggregation effect.From the perspective of local space,there are three types of spatial clusters,namely high-low,low-high and high-high.The high-low clusters are mainly distributed in southwest Anhui and northeast Jiangsu,while Zhoushan is characterized by stable low-high cluster.The high-high cluster cities are mainly Suzhou,Jiaxing and Nantong.③Haze pollution has a significant negative impact on inbound tourism flow in the local region,and has a negative spatial spillover effect on neighboring cities through spatial correlation;industrial structure,opening degree and transportation convenience also have spatial spillover effect on inbound tourism flow in adjacent areas.Finally,the paper puts forward some suggestions such as strengthening the linkage effect of regional haze prevention and control,coordinating various tourism elements to stabilize the inbound tourism market and improve the tourism competitiveness.