高技能人才与产业结构耦合协调的时空演化及影响因素研究——DPSIR-TOPSIS模型的检验

Research on the space-time evolution and influencing factors of the coupling and coordination between high-skilled talents and industrial structure:based on DPSIR-TOPSIS model verification

人才结构与产业结构能否协调发展是影响我国经济社会高质量发展的关键。基于2011—2020年的省级面板数据,本研究采用DPSIR-TOPSIS模型和Tobit模型测度了我国高技能人才与产业结构的耦合协调度及影响因素,并采用灰色预测模型对2021—2025年的耦合协调度进行了预测。研究结果显示,我国高技能人才与产业结构的耦合协调度有小幅提升,但整体上仍旧偏低,处于濒临失调状态;在高技能人才与产业结构耦合协调度的影响因素中,高技能人才数量和高技能人才占就业人口比重对耦合协调度具有显著正向影响,产业结构高级化对耦合协调度具有显著负向影响,经济发展水平、技术创新水平和人力资本水平对耦合协调度具有显著正向影响,政府干预程度对耦合协调度具有显著负向影响,对外开放水平对耦合协调度的影响为正但不显著;高技能人才与产业结构的耦合协调度在2021—2025年有小幅上升,各地区基本延续了2011—2020年的变化趋势,区域差异虽然仍旧存在,但在不断缩小。为提高高技能人才与产业结构耦合协调度,我国要做好顶层设计,加强部门统筹联动;明确办学定位,对接产业人才需求;调整专业结构,契合区域产业结构;重视地区差异,促进区域协调发展。

The coordinated development of talent and industrial structures is the key to the high-quality development of China′s economy and society.Based on the provincial panel data from 2011 to 2020,this study uses the DPSIR-TOPSIS and Tobit models to measure the coupling and coordination degree,and influencing factors of China′s highly skilled talents and industrial structure.It uses the gray prediction model to predict the coupling and coordination degree from 2021 to 2025.The research results show that the coupling and coordination degree between highly skilled talents and industrial structure in China has slightly improved,but overall,the coupling and coordination degree is low and on the brink of imbalance;Among the influencing factors of the coupling coordination degree between highly skilled talents and industrial structure,the number of highly skilled talents and the proportion of highly skilled talents to the employed population have a significant positive impact on the coupling coordination degree.In contrast,the upgrading of industrial structure has a significant negative impact on the coupling coordination degree.The level of economic development,technological innovation level,and human capital level have a significant positive impact on the coupling coordination degree;the degree of government intervention has a significant negative impact on the degree of coupling coordination,while the level of openness has a positive but not significant impact on the degree of coupling coordination.The degree of coupling and coordination between highly skilled talents and industrial structure has slightly increased from 2021 to 2025,and the trend of changes in various regions has basically continued from 2011 to 2020.Although regional differences still exist,they are constantly narrowing.To improve the coupling and coordination degree between highly skilled talents and industrial structure,China needs to do a good job in top-level design and strengthen departmental coordination,clarify the positioning of education to meet the demand for industrial talents,adjust the professional structure to fit the regional industrial structure,and pay attention to regional differences to promote coordinated regional development.