2011─2019年阿拉尔垦区棉纤维品质变化的关键气候驱动因子分析

Analysis of Key Climate Driving Factors of Cotton Fiber Quality Change in Alar Reclamation Area from 2011 to 2019

根据南疆阿拉尔垦区2011─2019年棉纤维品质指标数据和同期逐日地面气象数据,应用统计学方法分析了南疆阿拉尔垦区棉纤维品质变化的关键气候驱动因子。结果表明:在2011─2019年期间,受气候影响的优质棉纤维马克隆比例和整齐度指数比例均呈增加趋势,受气候影响的优质棉纤维长度比例和断裂比强度比例均呈减少趋势;2011─2019年,棉花全生育期的最高气温呈显著减小趋势,减幅为0.0559℃/a,平均气温、最低气温、活动积温和降水量均呈不显著增加趋势,气温日较差、日照时数和相对湿度均呈不显著减少趋势;2011─2019年,棉纤维品质的变化与各生育历期的关系均不明显,优质棉纤维马克隆比例增加、纤维长度比例减小、断裂比强度比例减小、纤维整齐度指数比例增加的关键气候驱动因子分别为7月积温的增加、出苗─现蕾期日照时数的增加+8月平均气温的增加、8月气温日较差的减小+9月降水量的增加、播种─出苗期相对湿度的减小+7月降水量的减少。

Based on cotton fiber quality index data of Alar reclamation area in southern Xinjiang from 2011 to 2019 and the meteorological date in corresponding period,the key climate driving factors of cotton fiber quality change in Alar reclamation area of southern Xinjiang were analyzed by statistical method.The result shows that the micronaire ratio and uniformity degree ratio of high-quality cotton fiber controlled by climate change increased,but fiber length ratio and breaking strength ratio of high-quality cotton fiber controlled by climate change decreased.From 2011 to 2019,the maximum temperature during the whole growth period of cotton showed a significant decreasing trend,with a decreasing of 0.0559℃/a.The average air temperature,minimum air temperature,active accumulated temperature and precipitation showed an insignificant increasing trend.The diurnal temperature range,sunshine duration and relative humidity showed insignificant decreasing trend.From 2011 to 2019,the relationship between the change of cotton fiber quality and each growth period was not obvious.The key climate driving factors for the increase of micronaire ratio of high-quality cotton fiber,the decrease of the proportion of fiber length,the decrease of breaking strength ratio and the increase of the fiber uniformity index were the increase of accumulated temperature in July,the increase of the sunshine hours from seedling emergence to bud emergence and the increase of the average temperature in August,the decrease of the daily temperature range in August and the increase of precipitation in September,and the decrease of the relative humidity from seeding to seedling emergence and the decrease of precipitation in July.