基于粮食安全的延安市耕地面积分析

Analysis of the Amount of Cultivated Land in Yan’an Based on Food Security

耕地资源是保障粮食安全的基础。以延安市为研究区,在分析2010—2019年延安市全市耕地、人口、粮食生产变化的基础上,通过耕地需求量模型与GM(1,1)灰色模型对2025、2030年的耕地需求量和面积进行预测,以量化耕地面积能否实现粮食安全目标。

Cultivated land resources are the basis for ensuring food security.This paper takes Yan’an City as the study area,and on the basis of analysing the changes in cultivated land,population and food production in the city from 2010 to 2019,the cultivated land demand and area in 2025 and 2030 are forecasted by the cultivated land demand model and GM(1,1)grey model to quantify whether the cultivated land area can achieve the food security target.