集中供暖对劳动力流动的影响研究

Research on the Influence of Central Heating on Labor Flow

中国实行以秦岭—淮河为地理界线的南北差异化供暖政策,但随着南方冬季低温频发,南方供暖的呼声愈发高涨。那么,供暖城市是否更具有人才吸引力?围绕集中供暖与劳动力流动的关系,遵循理论-实证的技术路线对这一问题展开研究。理论上,将供暖作为一种产品,加入新经济地理学的自由企业家模型,并借助Matlab软件进行数值模拟。实证上,运用宏观数据,以秦岭—淮河一线作为空间断点,依次建立空间断点模型、面板固定效应模型和空间面板模型,结果表明:相较于不供暖的城市,冬季供暖的城市对劳动力的吸引力相对更大;然而,若供暖城市在冬季的最低气温过低,则该城市通过供暖吸引劳动力的优势会被抵消;即便一个城市的集中供暖污染了空气,但冬季供暖总体上仍然能正向提升该城市的人才吸引力;供暖与冬季最低气温的交互影响主要对本区域具有显著的正向作用,对相邻区域无空间溢出效应。进一步地,运用CLDS的个人微观数据,建立Logistic方法进行回归,结果发现,北方的集中供暖间接地促进了劳动力流入,尤其是对家乡原本就供暖的流动劳动力更具有吸引力。

China implements the north-south differentiated heating policy with Qinling-Huaihe River as the geographical boundary.With the frequent occurrence of low temperatures in winter in the south,the call for central heating in the south is increasingly high.So,is the heating city more attractive for talented people? This paper focuses on the relationship between central heating and labor mobility,and follows the theoretical-empirical technical route to carry out research.Theoretically,heating as a product is added to the free entrepreneur model of new economic geography,and numerical simulation is carried out with the help of Matlab software.In empirical study,on the basis of macro data,the regression discontinuity,the panel fixed effect model and the spatial panel model are established in turn,taking the Qinling-Huaihe line as the spatial breakpoint.Using the macro data,the empirical results show that the cities with heating in winter are more attractive to the labor force than the cities without heating;however,if the minimum temperature of a heating city in winter is too low,the advantage of the city in attracting labor through heating will be offset;even if a city's central heating pollutes the air,heating can still positively improve the city's talent attraction;the interaction between heating and winter minimum temperature has a significant positive effect on the region,and no spatial spillover effect on adjacent regions.Further,using the personal micro-data of CLDS,the empirical result shows that the central heating in the north indirectly promotes the inflow of labor force,especially for the migrant whose hometown provides central heating.