基于模糊层次分析的大型邮轮航行试验质量风险评估

Quality risk's evaluation research of large cruise's sea trail based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process

风险评估是风险管理的重要组成部分。针对大型邮轮航行试验质量风险评估中存在的多态性以及模糊性等问题,提出一种模糊综合评判方法和层次分析方法相结合的模糊层次分析方法。根据大型邮轮航行试验的整体特点,重点考虑影响航行试验质量的六大风险要素,建立航行试验质量风险指标体系和风险评估模型,形成一套适用于大型豪华邮轮航行试验风险评估的理论和方法体系。同时结合某实际航行试验项目,以模糊综合评价方法为主体框架,通过以专家问卷调查法为主的层次分析法确定各个评估指标的权重系数,利用模糊线性加权平均变换算子进行风险评估。该方法能够实现风险评估过程中不定性信息的处理,使得一些模糊的因素更加确定化,同时能够有效降低传统的专家决策方法固有的主观性,使得评估结果更加客观化。本文研究结果可为大型豪华邮轮航行试验质量风险评估提供参考。

Risk assessment is an important part of risk management.Based on the polymorphism and ambiguity in the quality risk assessment of large cruise's sea trail,a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and hierarchical analysis method is proposed.According to the overall characteristics of the large cruise's sea trail,focuses on the six risk factors affecting the quality oflarge cruise's sea trail,established the quality risk index system and risk assessment model oflarge cruise's sea trail,and formed a theory and method system suitable for the risk assessment of large luxury large cruise's sea trail.At the same time,combined an actual sea trail project,took the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method as the main framework,determined the weight coefficient of each evaluation index through the hierarchical analysis method based on the expert questionnaire survey method,and used the fuzzy linear weighted average transformation operator to carry out risk assessment.This method can realize the processing of uncertain information in the risk assessment process,make some fuzzy factors more certain,and can effectively reduce the inherent subjectivity of the traditional expert decision-making methods,making the evaluation results more objective.The results of this paper can provide reference for the quality risk assessment of large luxury sea trail.