中国与“一带一路”国家贸易效率测算及贸易潜力拓展研究

Research on Trade Efficiency Measurement and Trade Potential Expansion Between China and Belt&Road Countries

文章运用时变随机前沿引力模型测算中国与“一带一路”沿线国家进出口贸易潜力,采用贸易非效率模型分析进出口贸易效率的影响因素,并进一步对中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易潜力和贸易效率做分区域讨论,分别从贸易潜力大小、贸易效率高低以及贸易效率变动趋势的视角,对区域差异和重点国家做对比分析,在此基础上,提出中国与沿线国家贸易潜力拓展、贸易效率提升以及实施差异化推进策略的相关政策建议,以加快新发展格局的构建。

Using time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model,this paper estimates the potential export and import trade volume between China and countries along the Belt and Road,and further conduct subregional discu-ssions on trade potential and trade efficiency,make a comparative analysis of regional differences and key countries from the perspective of trade potential,trade efficiency and change trend of trade efficiency.Based on the above analysis,this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions on expanding trade potential,improving trade efficiency and implementing differentiated promotion strategies between China and countries along the Belt and Road,so as to accelerate the construction of a new development pattern.