基于健康指数的干式变压器剩余寿命预测

Residual Life Prediction of Dry-type Transformer Based on Health Index

干式变压器寿命预测对于大型电厂设备的安全稳定运行具有重要意义,而目前部分研究存在预测模型过于复杂,与实际变压器寿命预测工作不匹配等问题,针对此问题,本文建立了基于健康指数的干式变压器剩余寿命评估模型。首先依据变压器试验信息建立了干式变压器健康指数分级模型;其次,在前人研究的基础上,依据先验知识确定了各部分所反映的健康指数表;接着按照重要程度确定了各部分的权重值;而后结合各子健康指数和相对应的权重值得出最终健康指数;最后依据公式算出预期剩余寿命。为验证模型的合理性,利用天一电厂某一干式变压器的试验数据,应用所建立的模型用健康指数对剩余寿命进行预测,结果与该设备的实际情况相符,为变压器的安全运行提供了理论基础。

The life prediction of dry-type transformers is of great significance for the safe and stable operation of large power plant equipment.However,some current researches have problems such as the prediction model is too complex and does not match the actual life prediction work of transformers.Aiming at this problem,this paper establishes a residual life evaluation model based on the health index of drytype transformers.Firstly,the health index classification model of dry-type transformer is established based on the transformer test information;Secondly,on the basis of previous studies,the health index table reflected by each part was determined based on prior knowledge;Then the weight of each part is determined according to its importance;Then the final health index is obtained by combining each sub health index and the corresponding weight value;Finally,the expected remaining life is calculated according to the formula.In order to verify the rationality of the model,using the test data of a dry-type transformer in Tianyi Power Plant,the residual life of the model was predicted with the health index,and the results were consistent with the actual situation of the equipment,providing a theoretical basis for the safe operation of the transformer.