中国与“一带一路”沿线国家农产品贸易的水资源压力效应

Effects of water resources stress on agricultural trade between China and countries along Belt and Road

在统计2001—2020年中国与“一带一路”沿线国家农产品贸易量的基础上,结合已有研究成果中的产品水足迹测算其虚拟水量,通过构建水资源压力指数公式来量化“一带一路”沿线各国的水资源、农业用水压力,分析了虚拟水贸易时空演化特征及其机理,并对贸易中产生的农业水资源短缺压力进行了探讨。结果表明:中国进出口虚拟水量的变化与中国国情及国际事件有关,进口虚拟水量呈增大趋势,90%以上来自于东南亚、南亚、中东欧,以及蒙古和俄罗斯,绿水占比80%左右;出口虚拟水量呈稳定态势,80%以上出口至东南亚、西亚和中东,以及蒙古和俄罗斯,绿水占比70%左右;1/3以上的“一带一路”沿线国家面临高度、重度水资源压力,1/2以上的国家面临高度农业用水压力,近2/3的国家因从中国进口虚拟水资源减轻了农业水资源短缺压力,近1/3的国家因向中国出口虚拟水资源而增大了农业水资源短缺压力。

Based on the agricultural trade volume between China and the countries along the Belt and Road from 2001 to 2020,the virtual water volume was measured by combining the water footprint of the products with the existing research results,and the formula of water stress index was constructed to quantify the water resources and agricultural water stress of the countries along the Belt and Road.The spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of virtual water trade and its mechanism were analyzed,and the pressure of agricultural water shortage arising from the trade was discussed.The results show that changes in China’simport and export virtual water resources were related to its national conditions and international events.The trend of importing virtual water resources was increasing,with more than 90%coming from Southeast Asia,South Asia,Central and Eastern Europe,Mongolia and Russia,with green water accounting for about 80%.The trend of export virtual water resources was stable,with more than 80%exporting to Southeast Asia,West Asia and the Middle East,Mongolia and Russia,with green water accounting for about 70%.More than 1/3 of the countries along the Belt and Road are facing high and heavy water resources pressure,and more than 1/2 of the countries are facing high agricultural water pressure.Nearly 2/3 of the countries have reduced the pressure of agricultural water scarcity by importing virtual water resources from China.Nearly 1/3 of the countries have increased the pressure of agricultural water shortages by exporting virtual water resources to China.