基于Mann-Kendall趋势检验的城市能源碳达峰评估方法

Assessment Method for Urban Energy Carbon Emission Peak Based on Mann-Kendall Trend Test

能源是城市碳排放的重要组成,评估城市能源碳达峰是践行国家“双碳”战略的必要手段.为此,针对城市能源的碳排放水平,提出了一种基于Mann-Kendall趋势检验的能源碳达峰评估方法.通过构建涵盖能源碳排放量、清洁能源发电量、交通电能替代量等要素的碳监测体系,结合历史数据计算城市的能源碳排放总量.鉴于能源碳排放具有季节性和随机性,采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法,建立城市能源碳达峰判断模型,衡量不同时期区域碳排放水平.以上海某行政区为例,从年度、季度视角,判断该区域的能源碳达峰状态.计算结果表明,基于年度数据,该地区在2020年已实现能源碳达峰;基于季度数据,夏季与秋季已实现能源碳达峰,春季和冬季仍处于平台期.该方法可应用于评估城市级的碳达峰状态,为检验各省市的碳达峰进程提供参考.

Energy is an important component of urban carbon emissions.Assessing the peak of urban energy carbon is a necessary means to implement the national“double carbon”strategy.For this reason,this paper proposes an energy carbon peaking assessment method based on Mann-Kendall trend test for carbon emission of urban energy.By constructing a carbon monitoring system covering elements such as energy carbon emissions,clean energy generation,and transportation electric energy substitution,the total energy carbon emissions of the city are calculated by combining historical data.In view of the seasonality and randomness of energy carbon emissions,the Mann-Kendall trend test was used to establish a model for determining urban energy carbon peaking and to measure regional carbon emissions in different periods.Taking an administrative region in Shanghai as an example,the peak status of energy carbon in this region is judged from the perspective of year and quarter.The results show that based on the annual data,the region has reached its peak energy carbon in 2020.Based on quarterly data,peak energy carbon has been achieved in summer and autumn,while spring and winter are still in plateau.The methods proposed in this paper can be used to assess the carbon peak status in the city,and provide a reference for examining the carbon peak process in other provinces and cities.