“绿证交易+配额制考核”对责任主体交易策略影响研究

Research on Impact of“Tradable Green Certificate Trading+Renewable Portfolio Standard Assessment”on Trading Strategy of Responsible Subjects

为保障可再生能源可持续发展,我国先后推行了绿色证书(以下简称绿证)和可再生能源配额制(Renewable Portfolio Standard,RPS)机制。为明确相应政策组合对责任主体交易行为的影响效用,首先,分析了“绿证交易+配额制考核”下电力市场与绿证市场耦合机理;其次,基于反身性视角构建了消费侧责任主体参与电力市场与绿证市场交易的序贯优化模型;最后,通过算例模拟了责任主体在考核期内的交易决策过程。算例结果表明,在RPS下,相较固定价格模式,绿证的市场化交易可在不显著增加责任主体成本的前提下有效提升可再生能源电力消纳量和绿证市场交易额。另外,RPS权重和近期利益偏好对责任主体的月度和年度交易策略制定有明显影响,但并不总为正相关,需要进一步考虑可再生能源不确定性及不同电力商品价差等因素的影响。

To ensure the sustainable development of renewable energy,China has successively implemented the tradable green certificate and the Renewable Portfolio Standard(RPS)policies.To clarify the utility of the policy combination on transaction behavior of responsible subjects,firstly,the coupling mechanism between electricity market and green certificate market under the"green certificate transaction+RPS assessment"is analyzed.Secondly,a sequential optimization model for consumption-side responsible subjects from the perspective of reflexivity is constructed to simulate the decision-making process.Finally,an example is given for empirical analysis.The results show that,compared with fixed price model,the market-based transaction of green certificates can increase the consumption of renewable energy and the transaction volume of green certificates without significantly increasing the cost of responsible subjects.In addition,RPS weight and short-term interest preference have significant impacts on the monthly and annual trading strategies of responsible subjects,but they are not necessarily positively correlated.It is necessary to further consider the impact of renewable energy uncertainty,power price difference and so on.