中国农业净碳效应与农业经济发展的时空耦合规律研究

A Study of the Spatial-Temporal Coupling Patterns Between the Net Carbon Effect of Agriculture and Agricultural Economic Development in China

农业既是碳源又是碳汇,农业减源增汇是助力“双碳”目标如期实现和农业强国建设的必要关键一环。文章采用排放系数法和参数估算法测算2000—2021年中国农业碳源碳汇体量、结构和强度,而后基于耦合协调度模型和Tapio耦合指数探究中国农业净碳效应与农业经济发展的耦合协调性。结果表明:(1)中国农业碳排放量或已于2015年达到峰值,总体经历了“波动上升期—平缓上升期—平缓下降期”三阶段变化历程。各类碳源的贡献程度、发展趋向和达峰节点各有异同,牲畜养殖(42.67%)是最主要碳源。(2)中国农业碳吸收量远高于农业碳排放量,二者的平均比值为2.64,总体经历了“波动上升期—平缓上升期”两阶段变化历程。粮经园作物的碳吸收量、贡献程度和发展趋向差异显著,呈现粮食作物(75.18%)一边倒态势。(3)中国农业净碳效应与农业经济发展呈现出协调和失调共同存在并且协调程度量多占优的局面,其中尤以粮食主产区省份协调程度突出。(4)绝大多数年份的耦合指数散点均落于第一象限内,且愈发呈现出趋向性的经济主导型耦合状态。总的来看,中国农业净碳效应体量呈平稳上升态势,且“十三五”以来经济效应总体领先环境效应。

Agriculture is both a carbon source and a carbon sink.The practice of reducing agricultural sources and increasing the capacity of agricultural sinks is a key link to help achieve the“double carbon”goal and build an agricultural power.This paper us⁃es the emission coefficient method and parameter estimation method to estimate the volume,structure and intensity of China’s agri⁃cultural carbon source and carbon sink from 2000 to 2021,and then explores the coupling coordination between China’s agricultur⁃al net carbon effect and agricultural economic development based on the coupling coordination degree model and the Tapio cou⁃pling index.The results are as follows.(1)China’s agricultural carbon emission may have reached its peak in 2015,and has experi⁃enced a three-stage change process of“fluctuating rising period-gentle rising period-gentle declining period”.The contribution degree,development trend and peak node of various carbon sources are different,and livestock breeding(42.67%)is the most im⁃portant carbon source.(2)China’s agricultural carbon uptake is much higher than agricultural carbon emissions,and the average ra⁃tio of the two is 2.64,which has experienced a two-stage change process of“fluctuating rising period-gentle rising period”.The carbon uptake,contribution degree and development trend of crops in grain economic garden are significantly different,with food crops accounting for the most par(t 75.18%)(.3)China’s agricultural net carbon effect and agricultural economic development pres⁃ent a situation of coordination and imbalance,and the degree of coordination is increasingly dominant,especially the coordination degree of major grain-producing provinces.(4)The scatter point of the coupling index in most years falls in the first quadrant,and increasingly shows a trend of economy-dominated coupling state.Overall,the volume of net carbon effect in China’s agriculture has been rising steadily,and the economic effect has been leading the environmental effect since the“13th Five-Year Plan”.