中国东北地区冬季冷空气活动特征研究

Study on characteristics of cold air activities in winter over Northeast China

利用1961—2017年东北地区164个气象站逐日气温、最低温度资料,按照《冷空气过程监测指标》行业标准,建立东北地区中等强度冷空气、强冷空气和寒潮历史数据集,采用气象统计学方法分析了东北冬季气温、中等强度冷空气、强冷空气和寒潮年际、年代际变化特征。结果表明:东北地区冬季气温呈显著上升趋势,趋势系数为0.45,通过了α=0.01的显著性检验,1960s最低,2010s达到最大值;东北地区冬季气温突变时间为1981年,突变前气温负距平为主,突变后气温波动变化明显;东北地区冬季冷空气过程以寒潮为主,冷空气出现日数、发生强度以12月最多、最强;冷空气趋势变化不显著,其中1961—1970强度最强,2001—2010年最弱;东北地区冬季气温突变后冷空气日数减少,强度减弱。

Based on the daily temperature and minimum temperature data of 164 meteorological stations in Northeast China from 1961 to 2017,in accordance with the“Cold Air Process Monitoring Indicators”of the People s Republic of China,a historical data set of medium-intensity cold air,strong cold air and cold waves in Northeast China was established.Statistical methods were used to analyze the interannual and interdecadal changes of northeast winter temperature,medium-intensity cold air,strong cold air and cold waves.Results show that the winter temperature in Northeast China shows a significant upward trend,with a trend coefficient of 0.45,which passed the 99%confidence test.It was the lowest in the 1960s and reached the maximum in the 2010s.The sudden change of winter temperature in Northeast China was 1981.Before the sudden change,the temperature was mainly negative anomalies.After the sudden change,the temperature fluctuated significantly.The cold air process in Northeast China is dominated by cold waves.The number of days and intensity of cold air are the most and strongest in December;the trend of cold air does not change significantly,with the strongest intensity from 1961 to 1970 and the weakest from 2001 to 2010.After the sudden change of temperature in winter in Northeast China,the number of cold air days decreased and the intensity weakened.