经济政策不确定性与系统性金融风险:研究脉络与展望

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Systemic Financial Risk:Research Context and Prospects

近年来,中国及全球主要经济体日益攀升的经济政策不确定性给宏观经济增长和金融稳定带来了严峻挑战,围绕经济政策不确定性与系统性金融风险关系的研究正逐渐受到学界的关注。鉴于此,本文从金融机构脆弱性、金融市场脆弱性、风险传染性三个层面系统梳理了该主题的相关研究。结果发现:经济政策不确定性会改变金融机构的脆弱性,但在影响效果上观点不一;经济政策不确定性能够解释大部分金融市场的波动性,对金融市场间波动的协同性也具有一定影响;经济政策不确定性的上升会抑制金融市场的流动性,影响市场间的流动性协同,增大融资成本和信用风险;经济政策不确定性的提高会加剧系统性金融风险的传染。该领域未来的研究可围绕经济政策不确定性细化指标、外部及全球经济政策不确定性影响效应、理论机理、实证方法等方面做进一步拓展与深化。

In recent years,the increasing uncertainty of economic policies in China and major economies around the world has posed serious challenges to macroeconomic growth and financial stability.The research on the relationship between the uncertainty of economic policy and systemic financial risk is gradually attracting the attention of the academic community.In view of this,this paper systematically combs the relevant research of this topic from three levels:the vulnerability of financial institutions,the vulnerability of financial markets,and risk contagion.The results show that the uncertainty of economic policy will change the vulnerability of financial institutions,but there are different views on the impact effect.The uncertainty of economic policy can explain the volatility of most financial markets,and has a certain impact on the synergy of volatility among financial markets.The rise of economic policy uncertainty will restrain the liquidity of financial markets,affect the liquidity coordination between markets,and increase financing costs and credit risks.The increase of economic policy uncertainty will aggravate the contagion of systemic financial risks.The research in this field can be further expanded and deepened by focusing on the detailed indicators of economic policy uncertainty,the effects of external and global economic policy uncertainty,theoretical mechanisms and empirical methods.