我国行业碳排放动态特征及流动结构研究

Research on the Dynamic Characteristics and Flow Structure of Carbon Emissions in China’s Industry

本文基于我国2012年、2017年、2018年和2020年的投入产出表和能源消费数据,分析了45个行业各年份的直接和完全碳排放动态特征,并运用复杂网络理论,刻画了碳排放经投入产出关系在行业间的流动结构,识别了碳排放流动的主要路径。主要结论如下:从最终产品生产角度看,建筑业和其他服务业一直是完全碳排放量前两大行业,排放占比超50%,应作为我国消费侧碳减排的重点领域。最新一期结果显示45个行业中有5个全过程高碳行业、4个表观型高碳行业、14个传导型高碳行业以及22个低碳行业。碳排放流动网络呈现“全连接”特征,电力、热力生产和供应业以及石油、煤炭及其他燃料加工业等是经济生产拉动碳流动的主要来源,同时在跨行业协同减碳时,需关注包括化学原料和化学制品制造业至橡胶和塑料制品业等17条碳流动路径。

Based on input-output tables and industry energy consumption data from 2012,2017,2018,and 2020,this study analyzes the direct and complete carbon emission characteristics of 45 industries in China for each year.Using complex net⁃work theory,the flow structure of carbon emissions through input-output relationships between industries is depicted,and the car⁃bon emission flow paths of key carbon emission industries are identified.The results show that:based on final product production,the construction industry,other service industries industry are the top two industries with complete carbon emissions,accounting for more than 50%of total emission amount,and are also key areas for measuring carbon emissions in China’s consumption.In 2020,among the 45 industries,there are 22 low-carbon industries,4 apparent high carbon industries,14 conductive high carbon indus⁃tries,and 5 full process high carbon industries.The carbon flow network between industries presents a“fully connected”feature.Two industries,including electricity,thermal production and supply,chemical raw material and petroleum,coal,and other fuel processing industries,are the main sources of carbon emission flow driven by economic production.At the same time,when redu⁃cing carbon emissions through industry collaboration,it is necessary to pay attention to 17 key paths for carbon flow between indus⁃tries such as chemical raw material and chemical product manufacturing rubber and plastic products.