RCEP框架下中国贸易成本测度及其对出口的影响研究

Probing China’s Trade Cost Measurement and Its Impacton Export Growth under the RCEP Framework

抓住RCEP正式生效的机遇期有利于我国加快构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局。利用2000-2020年的面板数据,采用Novy引力模型计算中国对RCEP其他成员国的出口贸易成本,实证研究贸易成本对中国出口的影响。研究发现:中国对RCEP其他成员国的贸易成本整体呈逐年下降趋势,对新加坡的贸易成本最低,对文莱的贸易成本最高;贸易成本对中国出口具有显著负向效应,分行业看,贸易成本与纺织品和高技术品出口呈现显著负相关,对农产品的负向效应不显著。以上发现为中国未来更好构建RCEP经贸合作框架提供了理论依据。

Seizing the period of opportunity that RCEP becomes formally effective will be helpful for our country to accelerate the construction of a new development pattern with domestic great circulation as the main body and mutual promoting domestic and international circulation.Based on the panel data from 2020 to 2022,the Novy gravity model is used to calculate China’s export trade costs to other RCEP members,and empirically study the impact of trade costs on China’s export.It is found that China’s trade costs with other RCEP members are on the whole decreasing year by year,among which with Singapore the lowest trade costs and with Brunei the highest.Trade cost has a significant negative effect on China’s export.In terms of different industries,trade costs have a drastic negative correlation with textile and high-tech exports,while no obvious negative effect on agricultural products.These findings provide a theoretical basis for China to better build the RCEP economic and trade cooperation framework in the future.