京津冀一体化促进了高质量发展吗?--基于回归控制法的政策评估

Has Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Integration Promoted High-quality Development?A Policy Evaluation Based on Regression Control Method

基于2005—2019年31个省市(自治区)(因数据缺失,不含港澳台地区)的相关数据,从经济增长、经济结构、公共服务、生态环境4个方面构建指标体系,利用回归控制法深入分析京津冀协同发展战略的政策效应,评估其对区域高质量发展的推动作用。研究结果表明,京津冀协同发展战略显著提升了区域经济发展的质量,在推动产业结构变迁和产业技术升级的同时,改善了公共服务水平和生态环境质量。然而,其并未促进区域经济发展数量的全面攀升。究其原因,在于该战略对不同城市的功能定位不同,相应影响存在异质性。研究为定量分析和评估京津冀协同发展战略的政策效应提供了一定参考,并对化解区域发展不平衡的困境具有一定现实意义。

Based on the relevant data of 31 provinces and cities(including autonomous regions)(Due to the lack of data,the statistical data mentioned here do not include the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region,the Macao Special Administrative Region and Taiwan Province.)in China from 2005 to 2019,an index system was constructed from four aspects,including economic growth,economic structure,public services and ecological environment.The regression control method was used to analyze and evaluate the policy effect of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development strategy and evaluate its role in promoting high-quality regional development.The results show that the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development strategy has significantly improved the quality of regional economic development,promoted the transformation of industrial structure and the upgrade of industrial technology,while improved public services and the quality of the ecological environment.However,it has not promoted an overall increase in the quantity of regional economic development.The reason is that different functional orientations of the strategy for different cities bring heterogeneous impact.The results provide some reference for quantitative analysis and evaluation of the policy effects of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development strategy,and offers a new perspective on the problem of unbalanced regional development.