中国省域水资源利用绩效评价及空间分异和驱动因素分析

Evaluation of provincial water resources utilization performance in China and its spatial differentiation and driving factor analysis

采用超效率SBM模型评价了2005—2020年中国省域水资源利用绩效,运用Dagum基尼系数分解法、空间自相关和时空跃迁分析方法解析了其空间分异特征,并利用地理探测器对空间分异的驱动机理进行了分析。结果表明:省域水资源利用绩效水平总体不高;空间差异程度整体呈波动扩大趋势,主要来源为超变密度,其次为地区间空间差异和地区内空间差异;空间分异格局在地理上呈现“东高西低”的空间关联特征,具有显著空间溢出效应,局域空间分布结构较为稳定;人口规模、经济水平和城镇化水平对水资源利用绩效的空间分异具有显著驱动作用,且在不同区域表现不同,全国层面和东部地区属于经济驱动型,中部和西部地区分别为城镇化驱动型和人口驱动型;产业发展水平对水资源利用绩效的空间分异驱动作用具有区域异质性,全国层面和东部地区属于工业驱动型,中部和西部地区分别为建筑业驱动型和农业驱动型。建议各区域根据主导驱动因素制定相关水资源利用绩效协同提升策略。

The super-efficiency slacks-based measurement model was used to evaluate provincial water resources utilization performance in China during 2005-2020.The Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition method,spatial autocorrelation,and temporal and spatial transition analysis were used to analyze the spatial differentiation.The driving mechanism of spatial differentiation was analyzed by using geographical detector.The results showed that the level of provincial water resources utilization performance was generally not high.The degree of spatial differentiation had a trend of fluctuation and expansion on the whole,and the main source was supervariable density,followed by inter-regional differentiation and intra-regional differentiation.The spatial differentiation pattern showed a spatial correlation characteristic of“high in east and low in west”,with a significant spatial spillover effect and relatively stable local spatial distribution structure.Population size,economic level,and urbanization level had significant driving effects on the spatial differentiation of water resources utilization performance,and the effects were different in different regions.Water resources utilization performance was economically driven on the national scale and in the eastern region,and it was urbanization-driven and population-driven in the central region and western region,respectively.The driving effect of industrial development on spatial differentiation of water resources utilization performance had regional heterogeneity.Water resources utilization performance was industry-driven on the national scale and in the eastern region,while it was construction industry-driven and agriculture-driven in the central region and western region,respectively.It is suggested to formulate coordinated improvement strategies for water resources utilization performance in relevant regions according to the leading driving factors.