海绵城市水系统耦合协调发展及动态响应研究

Study on coupling coordination development and dynamic response of water system of sponge cities

针对城市水系统构建评价指标体系,收集了6座试点海绵城市评价指标数据,运用耦合协调模型对城市间水系统耦合协调发展情况进行了实证分析;采用灰色关联分析法确定关键指标,构建了系统耦合协调度与关键指标的向量自回归模型,分析关键指标对水系统协调发展的影响机制。结果表明:在海绵城市建设后,6市水系统的耦合协调水平由严重或中度失调达到基本协调,短期内试点的南方城市(武汉、深圳、上海)“海绵化”改造成效优于北方城市(济南、北京);水生态与水安全子系统耦合协调度最高,河道治理率和饮用水达标率对两子系统关系具有促进与阻碍交替的波动性影响;水资源与水文化子系统的耦合协调度最差,官方平台宣传次数对两子系统关系具有显著且持续的促进效应;水资源与水环境子系统耦合协调度有待进一步提高,万元GDP用水量和污水处理率对两子系统协调有促进效应,但持续时间较短。

Based on the established evaluation indicator system of urban water system,evaluation indicator data collected from six typical pilot sponge cities were analyzed using a coupling coordination model to empirically examine the development status of coupling coordination of the water system of different cities.The key indicators were identified through grey correlation analysis,and a vector autoregression model was established to investigate the mechanism,through which these key indicators impact the development of coupling coordination of the water system.The findings indicate that the water system of the six cities has progressed from serious or moderate incoordination to coordination after the construction of sponge cities,and“sponging”reconstruction had better short-term effectiveness in southern pilot cities,including Wuhan,Shenzhen,and Shanghai,compared to northern pilot cities,including Jinan and Beijing.Furthermore,the coupling coordination degree between the water ecology and water security subsystems is found to be the highest,while river regulation rate and drinking water compliance rate exert fluctuating effects,alternatively impeding or promoting the interrelation between the two sub-systems.By contrast,the coupling coordination degree between the water resources and water culture subsystems is the weakest,while the number of official platform publicity exerts a significant and sustained positive effect on the relationship between the two sub-systems.Additionally,there is a need for further enhancement of the coupling coordination degree between the water resources and water environment subsystems,and the increases of water consumption per 10000 yuan of GDP and sewage treatment rate have significant promoting but short-lived effects on the coordination between the two sub-systems.