漳河流域洪水预报方案修编分析

Revision of Flood Forecasting Scheme for Zhanghe River Basin

针对海河流域漳卫河水系水文气象特点和漳河石梁、匡门口、观台3个水文断面以上区域的当前下垫面情况和洪水特性,利用1995年以后洪水资料,参照《水文情报预报规范》(GBT 22482-2008)要求,采用P+Pa-R、单位线产汇流模型和马斯京根河道流量分段演算模型对漳河石梁、匡门口、观台3个水文站点进行预报方案修编和模型参数率定。修编后的预报方案精度达到乙级标准,方案整体预报精度能够满足实时作业预报的需要。

Based on the hydrological and meteorological characteristics of Zhanghe River and Weihe River system in the Haihe River Basin,as well as the current land surface conditions and flood characteristics in the upper reaches of Shiliang,Kuangmenkou,and Guantai hydrological sections,this paper utilizes flood data from 1995 onwards to revise the flood forecasting scheme and calibrate model parameters for these three hydrological stations.Following the requirements outlined in the Specification for Hydrological Information and Forecasting(GBT22482-2008),the P+Pa~R method,unit hydrograph routing model,and Muskingum channel flow routing model are employed.The revised forecasting scheme has achieved an accuracy level that meets Class B standards,while the overall forecast accuracy of the scheme is able to fulfill the requirements of real-time operational forecasting.