农业供应链金融主体策略演化博弈协调分析

Agricultural Supply Chain Financial Subject Strategy Evolutionary Game Coordination Analysis

农业供应链金融是化解农村金融问题、助力乡村振兴的有效途径,但如何提振供应链参与主体参加农业供应链金融的信心、协调参与者积极性是农村金融的一大难题。基于有限理性情况,利用演化博弈方法分析农业供应链金融主体(农户、核心企业、金融机构)参与意愿的影响因素,采用数值仿真模拟相关扰动,分析影响均衡解的因素,最后得到如下结论:在农业供应链金融合作主体中,农户一般处于利好位置,有限理性条件下,履约性较强,倾向于最愿意参与合作;核心企业策略选择与其预期收益和其他两方主体参与意愿成正向相关,策略弹性较大,其可控性和可调节性相对较强;金融机构对于资金的机会成本最为敏感,短期看来,参与农业供应链金融可能获益较低。针对以上结论给出相应建议:提高农民金融素养是农户积极参与的关键;核心企业具有较大的收入灵活性和可控性,应承担协调农民和金融机构参与共同帮助农村振兴的任务,政府需采取相对应的激励措施促使金融机构参与农业供应链金融合作。

Agricultural supply chain finance is an effective way to resolve rural financial problems and help rural revitalization,but how to boost the confidence of supply chain participants to participate in agricultural supply chain finance and coordinate the enthusiasm of participants is a major problem in rural finance.Based on the situation of bounded rationality,evolutionary game is used to analyze the influencing factors of the willingness of agricultural supply chain financial subjects(farmers,core enterprises,financial institutions)to participate,numerical simulation is used to simulate the relevant disturbances,and the factors affecting the equilibrium solution analyzes.Finally,the following conclusions are obtained:Among the cooperative subjects of agricultural supply chain finance,the farmers are generally in a favorable position,under limited rational conditions,the performance is strong,tend to be most willing to participate in the cooperation.Core enterprise strategy selection is positively related to the expected income and the participation willingness of other two parties,strategy flexibility,and controllability and adjustment.Financial institutions are most sensitive to the opportunity cost of capital,in the short term,the participation in agricultural supply chain finance may benefit less.According to the above conclusions,corresponding suggestions are given:improving the financial literacy of farmers is the key to the active participation of farmers,the core enterprises have great income flexibility and controllability,should undertake the task of coordinating farmers and financial institutions to participate in helping the rural revitalization,and the government should take corresponding incentive measures to encourage financial institutions to participate in agricultural supply chain financial cooperation.