政策不确定性会抑制全球价值链分工地位的提升吗

Will Policy Uncertainty Inhibit the Promotion of Global Value Chains?

当前全球经济增长放缓,贸易保护主义盛行,全球价值链的发展面临新形势,不确定性因素时有发生。本研究在构建结构方程模型的基础上,运用数据分析了政策不确定性对全球价值链分工的影响效应,结果表明:总体而言,国内外政策不确定性会给全球价值链分工地位带来影响,并且每种政策不确定性的影响是异质性的,同时会通过出口、研发以及投资三种渠道产生影响。本研究从区分不同种类以及国内国外政策不确定性及其影响渠道的视角,为提升全球价值链分工地位提供了一个新的思路。

At present,the global economic growth is slowing down,trade protectionism is prevalent,the de⁃velopment of the global value chain is facing a new situation,and uncertainties occur from time to time.On the basis of constructing the structural equation model,using data to analyze the effect of policy uncer⁃tainty on the global value chain,the results show that:overall,policy uncertainty will affect the global value chain,and each The impact of policy uncertainty is heterogeneous,and it will be affected through three channels:exports,R&D,and investment.From the perspective of distinguishing different types,domes⁃tic and foreign policy uncertainties and their influence channels,it provides a new idea for improving the status of global value chain.