基于改进BES-LSSVM光伏组件积灰预测

ASH DEPOSITION PREDICTION OF PHOTOVOLTAIC MODULES BASED ON IMPROVED BES-LSSVM

为探究气象因素与光伏组件积灰之间的关系,提出一种基于改进秃鹰算法(IBES)优化的最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM)的积灰预测模型。该模型以降雨量、风速等气象因素作为输入,对组件面积灰进行预测。通过引入高斯-柯西变异算子对种群最优个体进行变异,择优选取进入下一次迭代,改善原始秃鹰算法收敛速度慢、易陷入局部最优的缺点。将改进算法寻优得到的参数代入模型,仿真后与其他种类算法模型进行对比,结果表明IBES-LSSVM积灰预测模型预测误差更小,拟合效果更好。最后根据累计积灰计算发电损失,结合降雨情况对组件清洗进行指导。

In order to explore the relationship between meteorological factors and photovoltaic panel ash deposition,an ash deposition prediction model based on least squares support vector machine(LSSVM)optimized by improved bald eagle algorithm(IBES)is proposed.The model uses meteorological factors such as rainfall and wind speed as input to predict the ash content of the plate area.By introducing the Gauss-Cauchy mutation operator to mutate the optimal individual of the population,the optimal selection is entered into the next iteration,which improves the shortcomings of the original vulture algorithm,such as slow convergence speed and easy to fall into local optimum.The parameters obtained by the improved algorithm are substituted into the model,and compared with other kinds of algorithm models after simulation.The results show that the prediction error of the IBES-LSSVM ash accumulation prediction model is smaller and the fitting effect is better.Finally,the power generation loss is calculated according to the cumulative ash accumulation,and the component cleaning is guided according to the rainfall conditions.