基于复杂网络理论的水上交通事故致因分析

Causal analysis of water traffic accidents based on complex network theory

为了解水上交通事故各影响因素间的相互关系,预防水上交通事故的发生,以收集的水上交通事故调查报告为基础,分类整理4个主影响因素,即人为因素、管理因素、船舶因素、环境因素和78个子影响因素,在共现分析基础上构建邻接矩阵并计算Jaccard指数,建立水上交通事故致因网络模型,并对致因网络的度、网络直径及平均路径长度、聚类系数、接近中心度、中介中心度等统计指标进行计算分析,确定影响水上交通安全的关键因素;构建网络节点多属性决策综合评价模型,判断各影响因素的重要程度。结果表明,人为因素和管理因素占据主导地位,其中,疏忽瞭望、判断失误、未采取有效措施、安全意识不足、未充分运用良好船艺、配员不合格、缺乏安全管理、应急不当等因素为关键影响因素。

In order to understand the relationship between the influencing factors of water traffic accidents and prevent the occurrence of water traffic accidents,based on the collected investigation reports of water traffic accidents,four main influencing factors,namely human factors,management factors,ship factors,environmental factors and 78 sub-influencing factors were classified and sorted out,and on the basis of co-occurrence analysis,an adjacency matrix was constructed and the Jaccard index was calculated to establish a network model of water traffic accident causes.The statistical indicators such as the degree,network diameter,average path length,clustering coefficient,proximity centrality,and intermediary centrality of the causal network were calculated and analyzed to determine the key factors affecting water traffic safety.The comprehensive evaluation model for multi-attribute decisionmaking of network nodes was constructed to determine the importance of each influencing factor.The results show that human factors and management factors are dominant,among which,negligence in observation,misjudgment,failure to take effective measures,insufficient safety awareness,insufficient use of good ship skills,unqualified manning,lack of safety management,and improper emergency response are the key influencing factors.