限购政策对房地产开发贷款风险的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Purchase Restriction Policy on Real Estate Development Loan Risk

基于2007-2019年全国50个大中城市的面板数据,运用多时点双重差分模型,分析限购政策对房地产开发贷款风险的影响。研究表明:限购政策会显著降低房地产开发贷款风险,但该抑制作用的持续时间较短,不具有长期持续的显著效果;采用平行趋势检验等稳健性检验后,结论仍然稳健;相较于非一线城市和中西部地区,限购政策对一线城市和东部地区房地产开发贷款风险的抑制作用更为显著。根据理论机制和实证结论,本文从坚持“房住不炒”战略方针、因城施策实行差异化限购政策、健全房地产开发贷款风险防控长效机制三个方面提出促进房地产市场健康运行的对策建议。

Based on the panel data of 50 large and medium-sized cities in China from 2007 to 2019,the multi-time point double difference model is used to analyze the impact of purchase restriction policy on real estate development loan risk.The results show that the purchase restriction policy can significantly reduce the risk of real estate development loans,but the duration of the inhibitory effect is relatively short and does not have a significant effect on long-term sustainability.After using robustness tests such as parallel trend tests,the conclusions are still robust.Compared with non-first-tier cities and central and western regions,the purchase restriction policy has a more significant inhibitory effect on the risk of real estate development loans in first-tier cities and eastern regions.According to the theoretical mechanism and empirical conclusions,this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to promote the healthy operation of the real estate market from three aspects:adhering to the strategic policy of“housing and not speculating”,implementing differentiated purchase restriction policy according to the city’s policy,and improving the long-term mechanism of risk prevention and control of real estate development loans.