人民币汇率对碳排放量的影响分析--基于外贸发展水平的中介效应

Analysis of the Impact of RMB Exchange Rate on Carbon Emissions--Based on the Mediating Effect of the Foreign Trade Development

全球变暖已成为影响全人类的主要气候问题,通过调控汇率助力“双碳”目标的实现是解决这一问题的重要手段。基于2005—2019年我国省际面板数据,采用中介效应模型实证检验人民币汇率对碳排放量的影响机制及外贸发展水平在其中的中介效应。研究结果表明:(1)人民币汇率的上升可以显著减少碳排放量;(2)存在“人民币汇率—外贸发展水平—碳排放量”的中介效应机制,汇率抬升可以经由降低进出口总额来减少碳排放量;(3)产品和贸易结构的差异使上述效应存在南北省份的区域异质性,进出口总额在北方省份仍表现为汇率影响碳排放的中介渠道,但南方地区该中介效应则不显著。

Global warming has become a major climate problem for all mankind,and helping to achieve the dual carbon goal by regulating exchange rates is an important means to solve this problem.Based on inter-provincial panel data for China from 2005 to 2019.A mediating effect model is used to empirically test the mechanism of RMB exchange rate on carbon emissions and the mediating effect of foreign trade development in it.The results show that:1.An increase in RMB exchange rate can significantly reduce carbon emissions;2.There is a mechanism of RMB exchange rate-foreign trade development-carbon emissions mediating effect,and an increase in exchange rate can reduce carbon emissions by reducing the total amount of imports and exports.3.The differences in product and trade structures enable regional heterogeneity of the mediating effect in the North and South provinces in China,with total imports and exports still exhibiting a mediating channel for exchange rate effects on carbon emissions in the Northern provinces,but the mediating effect is not significant in the South provinces.