超大城市创新能力空间均衡的影响因素研究——以上海为例

The Influencing Factors of Spatial Equilibrium of Innovation Capacity in Megacities——A Case Study of Shanghai

创新能力的空间均衡是考察区域创新实力的重要指标,以上海为例,探究超大城市创新能力空间均衡的影响因素。基于《上海统计年鉴》《中国城市统计年鉴》《中国县域统计年鉴》等数据,通过熵值法、一般计量经济学模型(OLS)、空间滞后模型(SLM)、空间误差模型(SEM)以及地理加权回归(GWR)系统分析上海创新能力空间均衡的影响因素及其空间分异。研究发现,上海市创新能力在空间布局上并不均衡;创新能力自城市核心区、近郊区、远郊区逐次降低的特点,呈现出东部地区高-高集聚、南部地区低-低集聚的分布格局;上海市各区创新能力存在空间依赖和空间溢出效应。全局Moran’s I指数和空间计量模型均表明创新能力具有空间相关性,人口密度、高兴企业数量、城镇化水平、政府干预对城市创新能力具有不同程度的影响;上海市创新能力空间均衡的影响因素存在明显的空间分异;人口密度与创新能力存在倒“U”型关系,在空间上呈同心圆状分布;高新企业数量、城镇化水平、政府干预对创新能力具有促进作用,分别呈条带状分布、团状分布和“十”字型分布。研究结果有助于客观揭示超大城市创新能力空间均衡的影响因素,为推动上海市建设具有全球影响力的科创中心提供理论参考和决策依据。

The spatial equilibrium of innovation capacity is an important index to examine regional innovation strength.Taking Shanghai as an example,this paper explored the factors that influence the spatial equilibrium of innovation capacity of megacities.Based on the data of Shanghai Statistical Yearbook,China City Statistical Yearbook and China County Statistical Yearbook,entropy method,general econometrics model(OLS),spatial lag model(SLM),spatial error model(SEM)and geographically weighted regression(GWR)system were used to analyze the influencing factors and spatial differentiation of spatial equilibrium of innovation capacity in Shanghai.The results show that:the spatial distribution of innovation capability in Shanghai is not balanced.The innovation capability gradually decreases from the core area to suburban area and outer suburb,showing the distribution pattern of high-high agglomeration in the eastern region and low-low agglomeration in the southern region.Spatial dependence and spatial spillover effect exist in the innovation capability of Shanghai districts.The global Moran’s I index and the spatial econometric model show that the innovation capability has spatial correlation,and that the population density,the number of enterprises,the level of urbanization and government intervention have different degrees of influence on the innovation capability of cities.There are obvious spatial differences in influencing factors of spatial equilibrium of innovation capacity in Shanghai.There is an inverted U-shaped relationship between population density and innovation ability,which is distributed in concentric circles in space.The number of high-tech enterprises,the level of urbanization and the government intervention have a positive effect on the innovation ability,and the distribution is banded,clumpy and“cross”.This study is helpful to objectively reveal the factors affecting the spatial balance of innovation capacity in megacities,and provides theoretical reference and decision-making basis for promoting the construction of Shanghai as a science and innovation center with global influence.