机动条件下舰炮对目标的命中概率影响分析

Analysis of the Impact of Naval Gun on Target Hit Probability Under Maneuvering Conditions

舰艇机动条件下,舰炮发射时的真实初始位置和方位角信息与火控系统解算输入的初始位置和方位角信息存在一定偏差,从而使得射击诸元设置产生误差,影响舰炮对目标的命中概率。分析了舰艇机动时舰炮射击产生的测量误差,采用多模型算法对机动目标进行跟踪,引入虚拟观测误差对舰艇机动产生的误差进行修正,通过Matlab仿真分析了修正前后目标跟踪的滤波误差,并对比分析了火控模型误差修正前后舰炮对目标的命中概率,得出误差修正对命中概率的影响。

Under the condition of ship maneuvering,there is a certain deviation between the real initial position and azimuth angle information of the naval gun when it is fired and the initial position and azimuth angle information input by the fire control sys⁃tem,which will cause errors in the setting of shooting elements and affect the naval gun's hit probability on the target.The measure⁃ment error caused by the firing of naval guns when the ship is maneuvering is analyzed,the multi-model algorithm is used to track the maneuvering target,and the virtual observation error is introduced to correct the error caused by the maneuvering of the warship.The hit probability of the naval gun on the target before and after the error correction of the fire control model is compared and ana⁃lyzed,and the influence of the error correction on the hit probability is obtained.