基于OGGM模型的萨吾尔山冰川面积和储量预估

Projection of glacier area and volume in the Sawir Mountains modeled by the OGGM

基于全球开放冰川模型(OGGM),结合第六次气候模式比较计划(CMIP6),在5种气候模式(BCC-CSM2-MR、CESM2、CESM2-WACCM、FGOALS-f3-L、NorESM2-MM)模拟的3种气候情景(SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP5-8.5)下,系统分析了萨吾尔山冰川2020—2100年间面积和储量的变化。结果显示,3种气候情景下,萨吾尔山冰川面积和储量都呈现退缩趋势,其中SSP5-8.5气候情景下的冰川面积和储量损失最大,对应面积和储量变化为-0.154 km^(2)·a^(-1)和-5.11×10^(6) m^(3)·a^(-1),其次是SSP2-4.5,对应面积和储量变化为-0.150 km^(2)·a^(-1)和-5.05×106m^(3)·a^(-1),SSP1-2.6气候情景下面积和储量损失最小,面积和储量变化为-0.139 km^(2)·a^(-1)和-4.93×106m^(3)·a^(-1)。萨吾尔山中国境内冰川面积和储量变化要大于哈萨克斯坦境内,其中冰川面积变化基本符合从相对平稳到快速变化,最后再放缓的过程,但是储量变化相对平缓。2020—2050年间,萨吾尔山冰川主要以冰川减薄为主;2050—2100年间,该地区冰川主要以冰川面积退缩为主。截至2060年,萨吾尔山47.8%的冰川将会退缩,该比例在2080年将上升至78.2%。

Based on the Global Open Glacier Model(OGGM)in conjunction with the Sixth Climate Model Comparison Program(CMIP6),three climate scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP5-8.5)simulated by five climate models(BCC-CSM2-MR,CESM2,CESM2-WACCM,FGOALS-f3-L,NorESM2-MM),the changes in the area and reserves of Sawir Mountains glaciers during 2020—2100 were systematically analyzed.The results show that under the three climate scenarios,the area and volume of glaciers in Sawir Mountains show a shrinking trend,and the glacier area and volume loss under the SSP5-8.5 high forcing scenario is the largest,and the corresponding changes in area and volume are -0.154 km^(2)·a^(-1) and -5.11×10^(6) m^(3)·a^(-1),followed by the SSP2-4.5 medium forcing scenario,the corresponding area and volume changes are-0.150 km^(2)·a^(-1) and -5.05×10^(6) m^(3)·a^(-1),the SSP1-2.6 low forcing scenario has the smallest area and volume loss,and the area and volume change is -0.139 km^(2)·a^(-1) and -4.93×10^(6) m^(3)·a^(-1).The changes in glacier area and volume in the Sawir Mountains in China are greater than those in Kazakhstan.The changes in glacier area basically conform to the process from relatively stable to rapid changes,and finally slow down,but the changes in volume are relatively flat.Between 2020 and 2050,glacier thinning will dominate in the Sawir Mountains;between 2050 and 2100,glacier retreat will dominate in the area of the region.By 2060,47.8% of the glaciers on Sawir Mountains will have retreated,and this proportion will rise to 78.2% by 2080.