电压不平衡下长距离供电线路线损率的动态预测模型

Dynamic Prediction Model of Line Loss Rate of Long-distance Power Supply Line under Voltage Imbalance

为了动态且精准地预测电压不平衡下长距离供电线路的线损率,提高电压不平衡下长距离供电输电的稳定性和可靠性,提出基于频谱直流模拟参数监测的电压不平衡下长距离供电线路线损率预测模型。采用动态特征分析方法,建立电压不平衡下长距离供电线路的交流并网模型。根据电压不平衡下长距离供电线路的稳态和暂态因素,建立供电线路线损率参数模型;根据不同电压下直流模拟试验线段的输出阻抗参数,结合多级电网联络点分布特征,对线损率扰动分析;根据扰动突变参数分布,动态监测和分析线损率的频谱直流模拟参数,优化线损率预测算法,完成对线损率的预测和可靠性评估。实验结果表明,采用该方法动态预测电压不平衡下长距离供电线路的线损率,拟合值曲线与实测值曲线起伏保持一致,预测结果对实测结果具有较高的跟踪能力,稳定性较好;线损率的预测值与实测值相差不超过2%,预测精度较高,提升了电压不平衡下长距离供电线的稳定性和安全监测能力。

In order to dynamically and accurately predict the line loss rate of long-distance power supply lines under voltage imbalance,and improve the stability and reliability of long-distance power supply transmission under voltage imbalance,a prediction model of long-distance power supply lines under voltage imbalance based on spectrum DC analog parameters is proposed.According to the steady state and transient factors of the long-distance power supply line,we establish the voltage unbalanced state parameter analysis model,and construct the constraint parameter model of the decoupling parameter prediction.According to the output impedance parameters of the DC simulation test section of different voltage,the disturbance is analyzed by combining the distribution characteristics of multi-level power grid,and the disturbance mutation parameters are dynamically monitored and analyzed,and the prediction and reliability evaluation are then completed.The experimental results show that the proposed method can dynamically predict the line loss rate of the long-distance power supply line under voltage imbalance,the fitting value curve is consistent with the measured value curve,and the prediction result has a high tracking ability and good stability.The prediction value of the line loss rate is not large than 2%,it has high prediction accuracy,and improves the stability and safety monitoring ability of the long-distance power supply line under voltage imbalance.