长江经济带局部城市收缩、发展分异与空间作用机理探讨

The Phenomenon,Development Differentiation and Spatial Mechanism of Local Cities Shrinkage in Yangtze River Economic Belt

局部城市收缩对长江经济带可持续发展带来一定影响。以长江经济带110个城市为研究对象,基于2000—2020年人口普查数据,甄别长江经济带收缩城市,并分析收缩城市与非收缩城市的发展分异,进一步地基于“中心—外围”范式,利用交通时长数据,探讨不同区位城市收缩的空间作用机理,其结论显示:(1)2010—2020年长江经济带有51个收缩城市,其中26个延续了自2000年以来的人口负增长趋势;(2)收缩城市在人口年龄结构、教育结构,以及产业结构、公共服务等方面,与非收缩城市出现系统性差异,伴随人口选择性流失,长江经济带局部城市收缩可能形成了除东中西和城乡以外的另一种区域差距的类型,即收缩城市与非收缩城市的发展分异;(3)与中心城市的相对区位非线性地影响城市规模:与中心城市的最短交通时间小于50分钟的城市,倾向于实现人口正增长,大于50分钟的城市人口增长率呈非线性变化,更容易出现城市收缩。基于上述结论,有关方面应当优化长江经济带城市体系,加强长江经济带多式联运交通路网建设,引导长江经济带收缩城市合理地“瘦身健体”,从而推进长江经济带整体可持续发展。

The shrinkage of some cities has a certain impact on the sustainable development of the Yangtze RiverEconomic Belt. Based on the population census and statistical data,this paper takes 110 cities in the Belt as the objects,identifies the shrinking cities in the Belt, and compares the development indicators of the main economic and socialfields between the shrinking cities and the non-shrinking ones. Furthermore, it takes advantage of the “centerperiphery”model and the data of commuting time to discuss the spatial mechanism of the change of urban populationscale in different locations of the Belt. The conclusions are:(1) From 2010 to 2020,52 cities in the Belt experienced anet loss of population,of which 26 cities continued the negative population growth trend since 2000. (2) There havebeen systematic differences between shrinking cities and non-shrinking ones in the Belt in terms of population agestructure, education structure, industrial structure, public services and others, which means a developmentdifferentiation between shrinking cities and non-shrinking ones,a new type of regional disparity besides East-Middle-West and urban-rural areas. (3) The relative location with the central city affects the city size nonlinearly: the citieswith the shortest commuting time from the central city less than 50 minutes could likely to obtain positive effect ofpopulation growth brought by agglomeration, while cities with the shortest commuting time from the central citybetween 50 and 450 minutes tend to experience urban shrinkage. Therefore, to promote the overall sustainabledevelopment of the Belt, we should optimize the urban system, strengthen the construction of the multimodaltransportation network,and reasonably guide the shrinking cities to “slim down and keep healthy”.