欧洲细网格数值预报产品在双流机场低能见度天气预报中的应用研究

Application of European Center Numerical Forecast in LowVisibility Weather Forecast of Shuangliu Airport

针对目前双流机场主导能见度及跑道视程缺乏客观预报产品的问题,利用2009-2019年的自动观测、天气报告和EC细网格数值预报产品,基于双流机场低能见度天气学预测模型,建立主导能见度和跑道视程预测软件。该软件结合民航运行规范,利用归一化方法对EC细网格数值预报能见度产品进行修订,利用RVR与主导能见度的统计关系得到精细化的RVR预测产品,并利用历史个例前期地面气象要素的统计值进行消空。研究结果表明,该软件具有良好的准确性、稳定性,可有效降低双流机场低能见度天气的空报率和漏报率。

In view of the lack of objective forecasting products for visibility and runway visual range of Shuangliu Airport,the software for visibility and runway visual range prediction was established based on the low visibility synoptic forecasting model of Shuangliu Airport by using automatic observation,weather report and EC thin grid numerical forecasting products from 2009 to 2019.Combined with the operation rules of civil aviation,the software uses the normalization method to revise the EC fine grid numerical visibility forecast product,and uses the statistical relationship between RVR and dominant visi-bility to obtain the refined RVR forecast product,and uses the statistical value of the ground meteorological elements in the early historical cases to eliminate the air.The results show that the software has good accuracy and stability,and can ef-fectively reduce the false alarm rate and missing alarm rate of low visibility weather at Shuangliu Airport.