双碳背景下安徽省城市生态与经济系统的耦合时空演变分析

An Analysis of Coupling Spatio--Temporal Evolution of Urban Ecological and Economic Systems in Anhui Province Under the Background of Double Carbon

文章采用耦合协调度模型考察了“双碳”背景下区域经济社会发展与生态安全的协同效应,并采用障碍度模型分析其影响因素,最后通过BP神经网络对协同效应的未来演化趋势进行预测。结果表明:2011—2020年安徽省经济发展与城市生态系统的协调状况得到提升,协调等级由0.24提升到0.44。空间层面,合肥、芜湖经济发展较快,城市化水平高;黄山、池州和安庆生态安全状况良好;人均水资源面积、年造林面积是制约安徽省低碳生态进一步发展的主要因素。未来七年,安徽省各地区耦合指数虽有波动,但是总体呈现稳步上升的趋势,个别地市仍然处于较低耦合水平。

The coupling coordination degree model is used to investigate the synergistic effect of regional economic and social development process and ecological security under the background of"double carbon".The results show that:From 2011 to 2020,the coordination between economic development and urban ecosystem in Anhui Province has been improved,and the coordination level has increased from 0.24 to 0.44.At the spatial level,Hefei and Wuhu have rapid economic development and high urbanization level;Huangshan,Chizhou and Anqing ecological security are in good condition;Per capita water resources area and annual afforestation area are the main factors restricting the further development of low-carbon ecology in Anhui Province.In the next 7 years,although the coupling index of various regions in Anhui Province fluctuates,the overall trend is steadily rising,and some cities are still at a low coupling level.